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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

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Philadelphia Flyers
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noah Ostlund's goal at 19:30 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.7 to 2.8; shots on goal were PHI 27, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Samuel Ersson stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.3 goals below expected; Alex Lyon stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Zach Benson (2 A), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G), 3. Alex Lyon (24 saves, .889).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    Z. Benson2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Lyon24 saves, .889

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI11211015327
BUFBUF14212212528

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(7)
    M. Samuelsson (8), Z. Benson (12)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:40
  2. PHI
    N. Cates(8)
    B. Brink (7)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:38

2nd period

  1. PHI
    C. York(2)
    T. Zegras (20), B. Brink (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:01
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(17)
    R. Dahlin (23)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    16:54
  3. BUF
    N. Ostlund(5)
    O. Power (6), A. Tuch (18)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-3
    19:30

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Norris(3)PPG
    Z. Benson (13)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-4
    10:20
  2. PHI
    T. Konecny(10)
    E. Andrae (8), J. Drysdale (12)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-4
    14:28
  3. BUF
    R. McLeod(6)EN
    M. Samuelsson (9)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:52

Penalties

PHI 10 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 0:18BUFRasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Christian Dvorak2 min
  • 19:23PHITravis Konecny · Hookingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min

2nd

  • 4:52BUFAlex Tuch · Trippingdrawn by Emil Andrae2 min
  • 7:42PHIRasmus Ristolainen · Cross checkingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 11:18PHIMatvei Michkov · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Alex Lyon2 min

3rd

  • 10:02PHIBobby Brink · High stickingdrawn by Michael Kesselring2 min
  • 15:19PHITrevor Zegras · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
  • 17:41BUFMattias Samuelsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Noah Ostlund, 2nd 19:30 — BUF 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.94A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.28T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.16A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.14Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.12J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.12P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.12T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.11J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.09P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.09J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.09N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.09M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.08J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.08P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.06B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.05J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kesselring · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ostlund · Goal · xG 0.02Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF5 G · 3.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.7
2.43 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI52%48%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
28
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/3
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
29
Hits
24
10
Blocked shots
15
9
Giveaways
25
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6T. SanheimD000-100.00010—23:12
46T. ZegrasC011-110.220025020:32
8C. YorkD101-120.11000—20:31
9J. DrysdaleD011+120.08010—19:46
24N. SeelerD000-100.00240—19:07
11T. KonecnyR101-140.29202—19:06
22C. DvorakC000-240.860006018:37
74O. TippettR000-120.26300—17:21
36E. AndraeD011+100.00200—17:15
55R. RistolainenD000-120.02232—16:59
14S. CouturierC000-220.121007616:07
27N. CatesL101+120.111003615:37
91C. GrundstromR000-110.22600—15:28
39M. MichkovR000+120.34002—15:27
10B. BrinkR022+210.12112—14:38
19G. HathawayR000000.00300—08:39
18R. AbolsC000020.072002908:20
44N. DeslauriersL000000.00400—06:43
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33S. Ersson(L)27234.8522.71-1.2958:17

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).