Skip to content
Panthers at Avalanche
NHL

Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV ESPN, SNE·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Florida Panthers 6-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 18:30 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.5 to 1.8; shots on goal were FLA 25, COL 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 88% of the time. Daniil Tarasov stopped 36 of 42 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Gavin Brindley (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brock Nelson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    G. Brindley1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    B. Nelson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1120815225
COLCOL22031418642

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    S. Malinski(3)
    M. Necas (28), N. MacKinnon (28)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:14
  2. FLA
    N. Gregor(1)
    S. Jones (12)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:21
  3. COL
    B. Nelson(12)
    C. Makar (27), V. Nichushkin (8)
    backhandxG 0.53win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:30

2nd period

  1. COL
    G. Brindley(5)
    B. Burns (12), J. Manson (6)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:05
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(25)
    S. Girard (3), S. Malinski (14)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-4
    7:18
  3. COL
    A. Lehkonen(12)
    G. Brindley (4), D. Toews (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +3 ptsVideo
    1-5
    12:31

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(6)
    M. Necas (29), J. Manson (7)
    wristxG 0.52Video
    1-6
    6:18
  2. FLA
    M. Samoskevich(4)
    A. Greer (7), E. Rodrigues (8)
    snapxG 0.17Video
    2-6
    13:08

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 9:33FLACarter Verhaeghe · Slashingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 13:19COLJosh Manson · Hookingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min

2nd

  • 15:52FLANiko Mikkola · Holdingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 18:52FLAMackie Samoskevich · Trippingdrawn by Gavin Brindley2 min

3rd

  • 7:47COLGavin Brindley · Holdingdrawn by Uvis Balinskis2 min
  • 14:58FLAAaron Ekblad · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Nathan MacKinnon0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalFLA goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 1st 18:30 — COL 53% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.53G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.52N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.30V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.20G. Brindley · Goal · xG 0.18B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.16V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.15A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.13V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.12A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.11P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.10B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.10A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.08B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.07R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.06R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.05S. Malinski · Goal · xG 0.05S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.05G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.05M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.05G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 4.5 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsCOL
1.82 G
All situations
6 G4.5
1.42 G
Even strength
6 G3.8
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA12%88%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.79 – 4.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsCOL
25
Shots on goal
42
30%
Faceoffs
70%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
28
Hits
11
13
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
21
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3S. JonesD011-110.04200—22:03
42G. ForslingD000-300.00200—20:44
5A. EkbladD000-330.09020—20:01
77N. MikkolaD000-110.03302—19:19
2J. PetryD000010.01210—17:54
63B. MarchandL000000.00000—17:21
9S. BennettC000000.061302217:10
23C. VerhaegheC000030.312023316:31
26U. BalinskisD000010.02210—16:18
17E. RodriguesC011030.041003315:54
27E. LuostarinenC000-320.16010015:33
15A. LundellC000-320.250003615:17
13S. ReinhartC000-310.190103315:00
70J. BoqvistC000-200.00220014:32
11M. SamoskevichR101+120.23312—13:59
53J. StudnickaC000-120.215003013:03
18N. GregorL101-130.142003312:07
10A. GreerL011000.02110—11:18
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Tarasov(L)42366.8574.48-1.5259:56

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).