Stars at Devils 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Dallas Stars

▸3

New Jersey Devils

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Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the New Jersey Devils 3-0. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Miro Heiskanen's goal at 11:34 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were DAL 28, NJD 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 30 of 30 (1.000), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 25 of 28 (.893). Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (30 saves, 1.000), 2. Miro Heiskanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Esa Lindell (2 A).

Three stars

★
J. Oettinger30 saves, 1.000
★★
M. Heiskanen1 G, 1 A
★★★
E. Lindell2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	06	213	19	328
NJD	08	013	09	030

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Heiskanen(4)
R. Hintz (15), J. Benn (4)
snapxG 0.09win prob +20 ptsVideo
1-0
11:34
J. Robertson(17)
E. Lindell (6), J. Benn (5)
wristxG 0.11win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-0
17:36

3rd period

M. Rantanen(12)
E. Lindell (7), M. Heiskanen (20)
wristxG 0.56win prob +5 ptsVideo
3-0
7:05

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

7:01Mikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min
18:34Dougie Hamilton · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

3:28Jamie Benn · Trippingdrawn by Arseny Gritsyuk2 min
20:00Vladislav Kolyachonok · Roughingdrawn by Stefan Noesen2 min
20:00Stefan Noesen · Roughingdrawn by Vladislav Kolyachonok2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NJD

Biggest swing: Miro Heiskanen, 2nd 11:34 — DAL 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.9 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.5 xG · 35 att NJD

0 G · 1.9 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.53 G
All situations: 0 G1.9; 2.33 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

62%38%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 1.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 30; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 12
Hits: 23; 24
Blocked shots: 9; 16
Giveaways: 21; 7
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23E. LindellD	0	2	2	+3	1	0.01	1	5	0	—	25:31
4M. HeiskanenD	1	1	2	+3	3	0.13	0	1	0	—	24:34
96M. RantanenR	1	0	1	+1	4	0.81	2	1	2	—	19:00
46I. LyubushkinD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	18:29
28A. PetrovicD	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	2	0	—	17:55
18S. SteelC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.06	1	1	0	33	17:52
21J. RobertsonL	1	0	1	+2	4	0.52	0	0	0	—	17:05
44V. KolyachonokD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	5	2	—	17:05
53W. JohnstonC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.38	0	2	0	18	16:45
24R. HintzC	0	1	1	+2	2	0.06	0	0	0	43	16:30
49J. HryckowianC	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	2	1	0	25	14:31
20K. CapobiancoD	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	0	0	—	14:26
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	75	13:26
22M. BourqueC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	60	13:16
10O. BäckC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	100	13:14
14J. BennL	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	0	1	2	—	13:10
15C. BlackwellC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	38	12:21
11N. BastianR	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	2	0	0	—	10:50

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(W)	30	30	0	1.000	1.89	+1.89	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 33@0this game
Mar 246@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score