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Hurricanes at Sabres
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNSO·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Quinn's goal at 3:55 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.3 to 3.5; shots on goal were CAR 30, BUF 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 17 of 20 (.850); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 2.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan McLeod (2 A), 2. Beck Malenstyn (1 G), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (29 saves, .967).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. McLeod2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    B. Malenstyn1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen29 saves, .967

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR15012013130
BUFBUF1721014421

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(8)PPG
    R. McLeod (7), J. Doan (8)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:51
  2. CAR
    S. Gostisbehere(2)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    14:36

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(5)
    R. McLeod (8), J. Zucker (6)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:55
  2. BUF
    B. Malenstyn(2)
    T. Kozak (2), P. Krebs (6)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:36

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(12)EN
    Z. Benson (9)
    wristxG 0.94Video
    1-4
    19:38

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:22CARAlexander Nikishin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 7:55BUFserved by J. Zucker · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 12:16CARSebastian Aho · Roughingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 12:55BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by Jalen Chatfield2 min
  • 16:27CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 18:08BUFAlex Tuch · Slashingdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min

2nd

  • 5:26BUFJosh Dunne · Trippingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min
  • 15:59CARWilliam Carrier · Boardingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCAR goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jack Quinn, 2nd 3:55 — BUF 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.94R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.44J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.24T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.20J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.19B. Malenstyn · Goal · xG 0.17A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.16A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.15T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.14J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.13N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.12J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.12R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.10T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.10Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.09Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.09O. Power · Missed · xG 0.08J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.08J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05J. Dunne · On goal · xG 0.05O. Power · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 4.3 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsBUF
3.51 G
All situations
3 G4.3
2.20 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
1.21 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR58%42%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.41 – 2.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsBUF
30
Shots on goal
21
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
27
9
Blocked shots
21
18
Giveaways
17
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19K. MillerD000010.11300—23:18
24S. JarvisR000-230.4740010023:09
20S. AhoC000-220.192046921:03
26S. WalkerD000-220.15110—20:11
4S. GostisbehereD101-330.23200—20:10
37A. SvechnikovR000-250.6001010019:35
5J. ChatfieldD000000.00110—19:13
22L. StankovenC000-140.391004417:32
53J. BlakeR000-230.37000—17:14
27N. EhlersL000-200.12000—16:33
77M. JankowskiL000000.010306015:23
64J. NystromD000000.00000—14:49
21A. NikishinD000000.00112—13:59
50E. RobinsonL000020.31100—13:45
71T. HallL000020.27000—13:13
48J. MartinookL000000.132106012:45
28W. CarrierL000020.16002—08:54
6M. ReillyD000010.02010—04:21
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)20173.8502.93-0.0757:24

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).