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Oilers at Lightning
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning

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Edmonton Oilers
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸2
Final/OTTV ESPN+, HULU·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 in overtime, Jake Guentzel scoring at 1:43. The Oilers scored first; the Lightning answered. The Oilers led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 1:43 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.1 to 2.6; shots on goal were EDM 25, TBL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Calvin Pickard stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (24 saves, .960), 3. Calvin Pickard (33 saves, .943).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy24 saves, .960
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. Pickard33 saves, .943

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM111070403125
TBLTBL0801111412235

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    T. Frederic(2)
    L. Draisaitl (13)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:32

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Paul(1)
    J. Moser (5), E. Lilleberg (2)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +44 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:28

Overtime

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(12)
    D. Raddysh (6), N. Kucherov (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:43

Penalties

EDM 21 PIM·TBL 9 PIM

1st

  • 2:13TBLJake Guentzel · Slashingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
  • 13:01TBLCurtis Douglas · Fightingdrawn by Darnell Nurse5 min
  • 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse · Instigatordrawn by Curtis Douglas2 min
  • 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse · Fightingdrawn by Curtis Douglas5 min
  • 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse · Instigator misconduct10 min
  • 20:00EDMAlec Regula · Slashingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

2nd

  • 9:28EDMBrett Kulak · Trippingdrawn by Dominic James2 min
  • 15:36TBLJ.J. Moser · Interferencedrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalEDM goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, OT 1:43 — TBL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.25B. Point · Missed · xG 0.18B. Point · On goal · xG 0.17N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.16J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.15B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.14J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.13N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.13A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.12O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.09G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.04D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.04B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02B. Point · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.02C. D'Astous · Missed · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 3.1 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTBL
2.61 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.91 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM43%57%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTBL
25
Shots on goal
35
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/2
Power play
0/3
21
Penalty minutes
9
17
Hits
29
10
Blocked shots
19
14
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD000020.09110—28:07
14M. EkholmD000010.04220—24:17
97C. McDavidC000-130.630005024:06
29L. DraisaitlC011010.140006323:14
18Z. HymanL000-140.59200—20:35
19A. HenriqueC000020.172106018:06
27B. KulakD000010.02012—17:38
28J. RoslovicC000-110.221106717:25
92V. PodkolzinR000+120.08300—16:32
22M. SavoieC000010.10000015:38
49T. EmbersonD000+110.01010—14:46
25D. NurseD000-220.120017—14:33
10T. FredericC101+110.171005013:57
88A. MangiapaneL000-110.19200—12:37
13M. JanmarkC000000.00100010:14
96J. WalmanD000010.03030—10:03
86D. TomasekR000010.022006008:46
75A. RegulaD000000.02002—08:35
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Pickard(O)35332.9433.09+1.0961:43

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).