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Red Wings at Sabres
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV TNT, truTV·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Quinn's goal at 4:15 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 54% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.0 to 3.4; shots on goal were DET 31, BUF 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. John Gibson stopped 27 of 31 (.871); Colten Ellis stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Colten Ellis (29 saves, .935), 2. Jack Quinn (1 G, 2 A), 3. Tyson Kozak (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Ellis29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Kozak1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET05211015231
BUFBUF01121327431

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. DET
    J. Compher(1)
    A. Johansson (2), J. Berggren (1)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:00
  2. BUF
    J. Zucker(4)
    J. Quinn (2), C. Timmins (1)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:37
  3. BUF
    T. Kozak(2)
    J. Quinn (3), M. Samuelsson (2)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:28
  4. DET
    E. Finnie(3)
    D. Larkin (7), L. Raymond (4)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    18:20

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(3)PPG
    R. McLeod (1), B. Byram (2)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:15
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(2)
    J. Doan (4), R. McLeod (2)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-4
    8:10

Penalties

DET 10 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:35DETSimon Edvinsson · Trippingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 3:04DETJames van Riemsdyk · Hookingdrawn by Jiri Kulich2 min
  • 19:41BUFZach Benson · Slashingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min

2nd

  • 3:33DETDylan Larkin · High stickingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min

3rd

  • 2:22DETMichael Rasmussen · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Kozak2 min
  • 9:17DETMoritz Seider · Interferencedrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 12:49BUFJiri Kulich · Holdingdrawn by Jacob Bernard-Docker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDET goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jack Quinn, 3rd 4:15 — BUF 54% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.40J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.29J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.25T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.24J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.22J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.18T. Kozak · Goal · xG 0.18N. Ostlund · Missed · xG 0.17B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.16N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.12A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.11B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.11J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.06B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Metsa · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.03J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.02C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.02B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.02C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Metsa · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.00B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 4.0 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsBUF
3.42 G
All situations
4 G4.0
2.32 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.20 G
Power play
1 G1.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET45%55%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.36 – 3.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsBUF
31
Shots on goal
31
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
19
15
Blocked shots
18
12
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000050.29112—26:15
8B. ChiarotD000010.07140—22:50
71D. LarkinC011010.120025219:48
23L. RaymondL011000.07100—18:09
77S. EdvinssonD000-200.00032—17:43
44A. Sandin-PellikkaD000-200.02000—17:35
93A. DeBrincatR000-130.59000—16:42
18A. CoppC000020.133006915:41
20A. JohanssonD011+110.05120—15:15
48J. BerggrenR011+120.26000—14:59
37J. CompherL101+130.490004314:53
92M. KasperC000-210.181206714:21
27M. RasmussenC000-130.263026714:04
21J. van RiemsdykL000+110.44012—13:52
25J. Bernard-DockerD000+130.10210—13:41
22M. AppletonC000-110.0411010013:23
58E. FinnieC101010.13100013:05
28M. Brandsegg-NygårdR000-130.20000—11:02
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Gibson(L)31274.8713.70-0.3056:49

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).