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Predators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸7
FinalTV FDSNSO, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Nashville Predators 7-4. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 8:49 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.7 to 2.2; shots on goal were NSH 30, TOR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 1.8 goals below expected; Cayden Primeau stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 2. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1 G, 2 A), 3. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0821329430
TORTOR2926313728

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. McCabe(1)
    D. Joshua (1), J. Tavares (3)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:42
  2. TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson(1)
    W. Nylander (4), S. Benoit (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:34

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. McCarron(1)
    B. Skjei (1), N. Perbix (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:21
  2. NSH
    E. Haula(2)
    O. Wiesblatt (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:05
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(1)
    W. Nylander (5), O. Ekman-Larsson (1)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:49
  4. TOR
    B. McMann(2)
    N. Robertson (1), O. Ekman-Larsson (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    16:24

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(2)
    M. Knies (3), E. Cowan (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +3 ptsVideo
    2-5
    10:42
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(1)
    A. Wilsby (1), J. Marchessault (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-5
    16:06
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(3)EN
    J. Tavares (4), M. Knies (4)
    wristxG 0.92win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-6
    16:50
  4. NSH
    N. Perbix(1)
    A. Wilsby (2), O. Wiesblatt (2)
    wristxG 0.04Video
    4-6
    18:49
  5. TOR
    W. Nylander(2)EN
    M. Knies (5), J. McCabe (1)
    wristxG 0.57Video
    4-7
    19:36

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:01TORNicolas Roy · Hookingdrawn by Fedor Svechkov2 min

2nd

  • 5:40TORMatthew Knies · Hookingdrawn by Fedor Svechkov2 min
  • 17:44NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Carlo2 min
  • 17:44TORBrandon Carlo · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min

3rd

  • 3:28NSHOzzy Wiesblatt · Interferencedrawn by Easton Cowan2 min
  • 11:42NSHAdam Wilsby · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalNSH goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 2nd 8:49 — TOR 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.92W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.57J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.30W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.30N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.16B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.16A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.13M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.13B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.13D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.08B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.08M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.06N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.04B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR7 G · 4.7 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTOR
2.24 G
All situations
5 G4.7
1.84 G
Even strength
5 G2.5
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH34%66%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTOR
30
Shots on goal
28
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/2
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
20
17
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD101-340.14130—23:13
76B. SkjeiD011-130.06020—22:50
48N. PerbixD112+220.06100—21:45
90R. O'ReillyC000-300.350105018:57
83A. WilsbyD022000.07102—18:15
81J. MarchessaultR011-340.23000—17:30
9F. ForsbergL000-340.14400—17:29
56E. HaulaL101-110.081003617:29
91S. StamkosC000-220.280107117:23
24S. StastneyD000-200.01020—15:44
58M. BuntingL000000.00000—15:30
20J. BarronD000-210.01020—14:37
40F. SvechkovC000+120.171004414:30
36C. SmithR000010.11500—13:05
77L. EvangelistaR000020.26000—12:51
47M. McCarronC101010.082025812:48
17T. JostC000020.110005011:24
89O. WiesblattC022010.03202009:30
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)26215.8083.17-1.8359:10

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).