Blues at Avalanche 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸2

Colorado Avalanche

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1. The Blues scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pavel Buchnevich's goal at 8:54 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.6 to 2.6; shots on goal were STL 27, COL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Pavel Buchnevich (1 G), 2. Jordan Binnington (28 saves, .966), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G).

Three stars

★
P. Buchnevich1 G
★★
J. Binnington28 saves, .966
★★★
N. MacKinnon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	111	03	113	227
COL	111	07	011	129

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

Z. Bolduc(16)PPG
R. Thomas (48), O. Sundqvist (12)
snapxG 0.13win prob +9 ptsVideo
1-0
10:57
N. MacKinnon(30)
D. Toews (30)
snapxG 0.22win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-1
12:09

3rd period

P. Buchnevich(15)
R. Suter (13), R. Thomas (49)
snapxG 0.40win prob +31 ptsVideo
2-1
8:54

Penalties

2 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

10:20Jack Drury · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

15:27Brayden Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Sam Malinski2 min

3rd

3:27Ross Colton · Interferencedrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
5:57Nathan MacKinnon · Trippingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min
10:26Sam Malinski · High stickingdrawn by Zachary Bolduc2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich, 3rd 8:54 — STL 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.6 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.6 xG · 40 att COL

1 G · 2.6 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.62 G
All situations: 1 G2.6; 2.11 G
Even strength: 1 G1.9; 0.91 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

58%42%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.00 – 2.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 29; 37%
Faceoffs: 63%; 1/4
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 8; 30
Hits: 25; 22
Blocked shots: 9; 17
Giveaways: 17; 6
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
72J. FaulkD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	3	0	—	24:39
6P. BrobergD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	24:35
18R. ThomasC	0	2	2	+1	3	0.27	0	1	0	25	20:49
17C. FowlerD	0	0	0	0	3	0.31	0	4	0	—	20:20
89P. BuchnevichL	1	0	1	+1	3	1.09	0	0	0	—	20:02
10B. SchennC	0	0	0	0	2	0.46	3	3	2	61	19:26
81D. HollowayL	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	0	—	19:24
63J. NeighboursL	0	0	0	0	1	0.26	2	0	0	—	18:56
4N. LeddyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	18:28
25J. KyrouR	0	0	0	0	3	0.15	3	1	0	—	15:52
22R. SuterD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	15:06
70O. SundqvistC	0	1	1	0	1	0.25	1	2	0	29	13:33
76Z. BolducR	1	0	1	+1	5	0.67	2	0	0	—	13:25
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	2	0	23	12:13
13A. ToropchenkoR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	5	0	0	—	11:29
75T. TuckerD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	11:12
26N. WalkerL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	1	0	—	10:39
71M. JosephR	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	0	0	—	07:52

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
50J. Binnington(W)	29	28	1	.966	2.56	+1.56	60:00

Season series

STL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score