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Predators at Islanders
NHL

Nashville Predators at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
New York Islanders
▸7
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNSO·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Nashville Predators 7-4. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jean-Gabriel Pageau's goal at 2:37 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 54% to 66%. Expected goals were close — NSH 3.4, NYI 3.4; shots on goal were NSH 29, NYI 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 29 of 35 (.829), 3.1 goals below expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G, 1 A), 3. Casey Cizikas (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    B. Nelson2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Pageau1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    C. Cizikas1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH03212214429
NYINYI3192927735

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    J. Pageau(11)
    C. Cizikas (6), A. Boqvist (5)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:37
  2. NYI
    K. Palmieri(19)PPG
    A. Boqvist (6), B. Nelson (22)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:27
  3. NYI
    B. Horvat(20)
    A. Lee (19)
    snapxG 0.31win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    19:31

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(7)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    1:03
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(18)SHG
    S. Holmstrom (17)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-4
    2:38
  3. NSH
    M. Del Gaizo(1)
    C. Sissons (11), R. O'Reilly (22)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +8 ptsVideo
    2-4
    4:58
  4. NYI
    B. Nelson(19)
    A. Romanov (14), S. Holmstrom (18)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-5
    16:21

3rd period

  1. NYI
    C. Cizikas(5)
    H. Fasching (1), J. Pageau (19)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-6
    5:21
  2. NSH
    C. Smith(3)
    M. Del Gaizo (4), C. Sissons (12)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-6
    5:51
  3. NSH
    C. Smith(4)
    T. Novak (9), N. Blankenburg (5)
    snapxG 0.09Video
    4-6
    18:56
  4. NYI
    I. Sorokin(1)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.54Video
    4-7
    19:48

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 12:17NSHAndreas Englund · Cross checkingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 14:56NSHCole Smith · Slashingdrawn by Kyle MacLean2 min

2nd

  • 2:14NYICasey Cizikas · Hookingdrawn by Justin Barron2 min
  • 7:33NYICasey Cizikas · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 12:12NSHFilip Forsberg · High stickingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 16:21NSHserved by L. Evangelista · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

3rd

  • 16:54NYITony DeAngelo · Hookingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalNSH goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 1st 2:37 — NYI 54% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
I. Sorokin · Goal · xG 0.54B. Horvat · Goal · xG 0.31K. Palmieri · Goal · xG 0.20C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.19B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.17J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.15A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.15A. Boqvist · Missed · xG 0.13K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.10B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.09C. Cizikas · Goal · xG 0.08B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.07K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.07R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.07C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.07A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.06B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.06S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.06K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.04B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03H. Fasching · Missed · xG 0.03K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.03A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.03K. MacLean · Missed · xG 0.03A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.02T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.02T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.01C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.00A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.00A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI7 G · 3.4 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsNYI
3.44 G
All situations
7 G3.4
2.54 G
Even strength
5 G2.0
1.00 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH58%42%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.35 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsNYI
29
Shots on goal
35
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
10
Hits
18
14
Blocked shots
7
10
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD000-220.07110—26:06
9F. ForsbergL000-330.42102—21:27
37N. BlankenburgD011+200.00120—20:23
90R. O'ReillyC011040.530004419:52
81J. MarchessaultR000-451.00000—18:58
20J. BarronD000000.10100—18:03
7M. Del GaizoD112030.19000—17:47
91S. StamkosC000-330.270004417:31
2L. SchennD000-110.02440—17:11
8A. EnglundD000-100.00012—15:40
47M. McCarronC000000.001205015:31
36C. SmithR202+330.32012—14:24
10C. SissonsC123+310.080203013:24
21J. LucchiniC000-110.0200010013:20
77L. EvangelistaR000-100.07000—12:48
26K. BellowsL000030.32100—11:50
40F. SvechkovC000-100.000103310:26
82T. NovakC011-200.000004010:23
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)35296.8292.86-3.1458:46

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).