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Maple Leafs at Oilers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Edmonton Oilers
3
FinalTV SN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Corey Perry's goal at 11:33 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 4% to 18%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.3 to 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 28, EDM 48. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 45 of 48 (.938), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joseph Woll (45 saves, .938), 2. Evan Bouchard (1 G, 1 A), 3. Zach Hyman (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Woll45 saves, .938
  2. ★★
    EDM
    E. Bouchard1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    Z. Hyman1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR31205111428
EDMEDM014118216348

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(30)
    J. Tavares (23)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:32
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(19)PPG
    A. Matthews (19), M. Marner (54)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-0
    9:08
  3. TOR
    B. McMann(15)PPG
    M. Rielly (18), M. Domi (16)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-0
    12:50

2nd period

  1. EDM
    E. Bouchard(9)
    B. Kulak (11), V. Arvidsson (11)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:27

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(16)
    A. Matthews (20), M. Knies (14)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +8 ptsVideo
    4-1
    0:18
  2. EDM
    Z. Hyman(18)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (18), E. Bouchard (31)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-2
    6:04
  3. EDM
    C. Perry(10)
    B. Kulak (12), L. Draisaitl (41)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:33

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:15EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Slashingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 11:26EDMVasily Podkolzin · High stickingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 14:02TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 19:04TORConor Timmins · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 19:04EDMCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min

2nd

  • 3:56TORSimon Benoit · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTOR goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Corey Perry, 3rd 11:33 — EDM 4% → 18%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.31R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.28Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.20R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.18Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.17Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.16L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.11C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.11L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.10B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.08R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.08L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.08E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.07C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.06V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.05E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.04B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.04V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · Goal · xG 0.04D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.04B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.03D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.02C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 4.3 xG · 65 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsEDM
2.44 G
All situations
3 G4.3
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.02 G
Power play
0 G1.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR21%79%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 4.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsEDM
28
Shots on goal
48
53%
Faceoffs
47%
2/2
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
17
24
Blocked shots
7
11
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000+110.00530—30:22
8C. TanevD000000.00040—26:37
44M. RiellyD011-120.04020—22:11
88W. NylanderR101+150.43000—20:09
34A. MatthewsC022+170.400206119:56
91J. TavaresC011+100.002105619:54
16M. MarnerR112+130.2400010018:47
67M. PaciorettyL000+120.33330—17:43
2S. BenoitD000-100.01112—16:58
25C. TimminsD000-100.00132—16:43
23M. KniesL112+120.30410—16:14
74B. McMannC101-110.28100011:23
64D. KampfC000-210.190003310:53
18S. LorentzC000-210.01000010:50
11M. DomiC011-110.060004310:34
89N. RobertsonL000-120.12030—10:26
29P. HolmbergR000-200.00010—09:41
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000000.00002—05:09
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)48453.9384.33+1.3359:30

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).