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Maple Leafs at Penguins
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸5
FinalTV NHLN, SN-PIT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 5:34 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 57% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.1 to 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 27, PIT 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.6 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Michael Bunting (1 G), 2. Bryan Rust (1 G, 1 A), 3. Rickard Rakell (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    M. Bunting1 G
  2. ★★
    PIT
    B. Rust1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    R. Rakell1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1819010227
PITPIT26010313529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    R. Rakell(11)PPG
    M. Grzelcyk (12), K. Hayes (3)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:39
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(10)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (9), A. Matthews (9)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:35
  3. PIT
    B. Rust(9)
    S. Crosby (19), R. Rakell (7)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:15

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(17)PPG
    M. Marner (28), A. Matthews (10)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:32

3rd period

  1. PIT
    M. Bunting(6)PPG
    B. Rust (6), E. Karlsson (16)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +23 pts
    2-3
    5:34
  2. PIT
    B. Lizotte(6)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.40win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:20
  3. PIT
    K. Letang(5)EN
    M. Pettersson (11)
    wristxG 0.36Video
    2-5
    19:34

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·PIT 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:56TORMatthew Knies · Holdingdrawn by Rickard Rakell2 min

2nd

  • 1:34PITKris Letang · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 5:33TORMax Pacioretty · Roughingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min
  • 7:45TORMax Pacioretty · Roughingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min
  • 8:48PITErik Karlsson · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

3rd

  • 4:24TORAuston Matthews · High stickingdrawn by Owen Pickering2 min
  • 10:47TORAlex Nylander · Holdingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 17:47PITBryan Rust · High stickingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalTOR goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 3rd 5:34 — PIT 57% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Lizotte · Goal · xG 0.40K. Letang · Goal · xG 0.36K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.24S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.17D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.16B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.15R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.15B. Lizotte · On goal · xG 0.13R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.12B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.12M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.09M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.09K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.06K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.05B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.05K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.05E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.05S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.05M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.04S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.03B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.02S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.02M. Grzelcyk · Missed · xG 0.02D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.02R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Grzelcyk · On goal · xG 0.01M. Grzelcyk · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.00K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT5 G · 3.1 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsPIT
2.52 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.91 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.61 G
Power play
2 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR52%48%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsPIT
27
Shots on goal
29
35%
Faceoffs
65%
1/3
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
17
22
Blocked shots
18
20
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR112-240.52000—25:23
34A. MatthewsC022-240.290523522:43
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011010.06210—21:12
44M. RiellyD000-210.04020—21:04
23M. KniesL000-210.22002—20:50
8C. TanevD000000.00030—19:40
91J. TavaresC000-240.460203819:27
88W. NylanderR101-250.38000—19:12
51P. MyersD000020.04210—18:22
2S. BenoitD000030.10420—16:29
25C. TimminsD000000.01030—15:55
67M. PaciorettyL000010.00104—14:34
18S. LorentzC000000.00110010:47
39F. MintenC000010.153002510:32
24C. DewarC000000.001003810:19
29P. HolmbergR000000.13010—09:46
92A. NylanderL000000.03002—09:18
75R. ReavesR000000.07410—07:41
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)27243.8892.37-0.6358:53

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).