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Avalanche at Sabres
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV ALT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4. The Avalanche came back from 4 goals down. The Sabres led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Artturi Lehkonen's goal at 15:38 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 89%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.4, BUF 3.6; shots on goal were COL 41, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 22 of 22 (1.000), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 A), 3. Scott Wedgewood (22 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    S. Wedgewood22 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL09115417541
BUFBUF41201107430

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(12)
    C. Clifton (5), A. Tuch (15)
    wristxG 0.66win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:22
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(13)
    J. Zucker (10), B. Byram (11)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    6:39
  3. BUF
    J. Peterka(8)
    Z. Benson (4), D. Cozens (6)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    6:50
  4. BUF
    B. Malenstyn(2)
    N. Aube-Kubel (1)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +5 pts
    0-4
    11:49

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.10win prob +4 ptsVideo
    1-4
    2:24

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Kiviranta(5)
    C. de Haan (2), L. O'Connor (3)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    1:19
  2. COL
    L. O'Connor(3)
    S. Girard (13)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:30
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(9)
    M. Rantanen (20), D. Toews (7)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-4
    7:39
  4. COL
    A. Lehkonen(5)
    C. de Haan (3), N. MacKinnon (30)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +40 ptsVideo
    5-4
    15:38

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 3:22COLserved by Nikolai Kovalenko · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 9:31COLCalvin de Haan · Trippingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 12:57BUFZach Benson · Slashingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min

2nd

  • 19:09COLNikolai Kovalenko · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCOL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen, 3rd 15:38 — COL 48% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.66J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.26J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.18Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.17T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.16J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.13R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.11D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.11J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.11B. Malenstyn · Goal · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.10B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.09N. Aube-Kubel · Missed · xG 0.08P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.05J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.03P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.03N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.00H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.6 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsBUF
3.45 G
All situations
4 G3.6
3.25 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 107 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL50%50%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.36 – 3.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsBUF
41
Shots on goal
30
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
24
Hits
19
13
Blocked shots
11
15
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD011020.08020—28:27
8C. MakarD000+110.20200—27:20
96M. RantanenR011+120.260106725:58
62A. LehkonenL101+130.80010—24:33
29N. MacKinnonC213+190.632203723:33
13V. NichushkinR000-110.0901010017:37
49S. GirardD011+230.19120—17:33
70S. MalinskiD000+110.07120—16:43
25L. O'ConnorR112+130.35200—15:37
44C. de HaanD022070.12202—14:55
3J. LudvigD000-240.07210—14:11
94J. KivirantaL101+220.2240010013:36
82I. IvanC000000.031003312:17
37C. MittelstadtC000-210.121005712:00
17P. KellyC000000.023007510:12
51N. KovalenkoR000010.10102—09:35
14C. WagnerR000010.062102006:16
85N. PrishchepovC000000.00000003:37
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)222201.0002.15+2.1548:11
40A. Georgiev844.5001.42-2.5811:49

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).