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Hurricanes at Avalanche
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-4. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Artturi Lehkonen's goal at 16:42 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were CAR 31, COL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Spencer Martin stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 1.1 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 3 A), 2. Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 1 A), 3. Jordan Martinook (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Martinook2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR11426111431
COLCOL0651815629

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Drury(2)
    J. Martinook (4), J. Staal (2)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:02

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Martinook(3)
    S. Jarvis (6), S. Walker (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:37
  2. COL
    C. Makar(6)SHG
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:13
  3. COL
    S. Malinski(1)
    N. MacKinnon (20), S. Girard (7)
    backhandxG 0.41win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    10:57
  4. CAR
    M. Necas(8)PPG
    S. Jarvis (7), A. Svechnikov (9)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    12:26
  5. COL
    N. MacKinnon(7)
    A. Lehkonen (2), J. Ludvig (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:49
  6. COL
    A. Lehkonen(2)
    M. Rantanen (12), D. Toews (3)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:42
  7. COL
    M. Rantanen(7)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (10), N. MacKinnon (21)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:49

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Martinook(4)
    M. Necas (15), S. Aho (10)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-5
    2:50
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(8)EN
    N. MacKinnon (22)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-6
    19:10

Penalties

CAR 10 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:08COLT.J. Tynan · High stickingdrawn by William Carrier2 min
  • 5:57CARWilliam Carrier · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 6:22COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min
  • 17:19CARDmitry Orlov · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

2nd

  • 0:36CARJordan Staal · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 8:28COLJohn Ludvig · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:15COLSam Malinski · Holdingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 16:42CARserved by M. Necas · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 17:28CARJalen Chatfield · High stickingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCAR goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen, 2nd 16:42 — COL 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.49S. Malinski · Goal · xG 0.41C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.33A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.21A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.20A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.19N. Kovalenko · Missed · xG 0.18A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.15A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.15J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.10P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.09C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.06I. Ivan · Missed · xG 0.05N. Prishchepov · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kovalenko · Missed · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.01T. Tynan · Missed · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 4.4 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsCOL
2.84 G
All situations
5 G4.4
2.03 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR34%66%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 3.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsCOL
31
Shots on goal
29
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/4
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
16
Hits
7
13
Blocked shots
10
8
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD000-220.08000—25:03
74J. SlavinD000-210.01040—22:51
37A. SvechnikovR011-320.20310—21:15
20S. AhoC011-200.001005520:29
5J. ChatfieldD000+220.04112—19:43
7D. OrlovD000+220.04212—18:29
88M. NecasC112-120.391103317:57
11J. StaalC011010.180026916:18
24S. JarvisR022-210.291005015:46
48J. MartinookL213+130.4701010014:55
4S. GostisbehereD000-210.02010—14:28
96J. RoslovicC000-130.4000010014:26
26S. WalkerD011-140.11010—14:20
18J. DruryC101+130.261006413:35
53J. BlakeR000000.0000010011:56
82J. KotkaniemiC000030.190104011:31
50E. RobinsonL000010.12400—10:10
28W. CarrierL000-100.02212—09:04
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Martin(L)28235.8213.92-1.0858:23

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).