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Sabres at Stars
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Dallas Stars
▸3
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSWX·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Sabres scored first; the Stars answered. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 7:08 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.4 to 1.6; shots on goal were BUF 21, DAL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.1 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Joe Pavelski (1 G), 2. Thomas Harley (2 A), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Harley2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF250709221
DALDAL1721106324

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(21)
    H. Jokiharju (14), B. Byram (16)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:09
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(28)
    R. Hintz (35)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:15
  3. BUF
    R. Dahlin(20)
    O. Power (26), P. Krebs (12)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    9:38

2nd period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(32)
    T. Harley (30)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:38
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(27)
    C. Tanev (17), T. Harley (31)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-3
    7:08

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·DAL 16 PIM

2nd

  • 8:59DALCraig Smith · Trippingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 12:36BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min

3rd

  • 4:53BUFJack Quinn · Trippingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 8:22DALCraig Smith · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 10:54DALMiro Heiskanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 10:54DALMiro Heiskanen · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalBUF goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 2nd 7:08 — DAL 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.34J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.22R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.16J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.11J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.11C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.09W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.08L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.07J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.06E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.05W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.02S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.00T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 2.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDAL
1.62 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.22 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF41%59%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.53 – 1.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDAL
21
Shots on goal
24
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
16
24
Hits
23
8
Blocked shots
20
7
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25O. PowerD011010.01010—25:04
26R. DahlinD101030.06310—24:49
77J. PeterkaR000050.33100—22:24
89A. TuchR101030.24102—21:55
72T. ThompsonC000000.003004821:50
4B. ByramD011-100.00010—19:58
10H. JokiharjuD011-110.04100—19:25
24D. CozensC000-120.091004516:13
22J. QuinnR000010.13112—15:27
9Z. BensonL000-110.22300—14:55
12J. GreenwayL000+110.30110—14:17
75C. CliftonD000000.00310—14:15
78J. BrysonD000010.01020—13:28
53J. SkinnerL000+110.11000—13:03
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.000004010:56
17T. JostC000-100.012005010:36
19P. KrebsC011+110.034003809:54
13L. RousekR000-200.00000—09:29
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)24213.8751.95-1.0558:02

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).