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Sabres at Predators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 1:49 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 76% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.4 to 1.9; shots on goal were BUF 28, NSH 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Eric Comrie stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.3 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (3 G), 2. Gustav Nyquist (3 A), 3. Luke Evangelista (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg3 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    G. Nyquist3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    L. Evangelista1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1907112228
NSHNSH290827424

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(31)PPG
    R. Josi (47), G. Nyquist (37)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:53
  2. BUF
    B. Byram(9)
    R. Dahlin (32), P. Krebs (10)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:23
  3. NSH
    L. Evangelista(12)PPG
    M. Jankowski (1), T. Novak (22)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:15

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(32)
    G. Nyquist (38), R. O'Reilly (32)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    1:49
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(33)
    J. Lauzon (7), G. Nyquist (39)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.05win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    6:43
  3. BUF
    O. Power(5)
    B. Byram (13)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    12:52

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:50BUFZemgus Girgensons · Interferencedrawn by Cody Glass2 min
  • 5:56BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 8:34NSHRoman Josi · High stickingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 14:51BUFDylan Cozens · Trippingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min

2nd

  • 13:24NSHAlexandre Carrier · Holdingdrawn by Lukas Rousek2 min

3rd

  • 10:45NSHMichael McCarron · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalBUF goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, 3rd 1:49 — NSH 76% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.54L. Evangelista · Goal · xG 0.27G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.26G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.15F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.14C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.13C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.12F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.12M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.11G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.09M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.08C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.08L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.07R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.05L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.05M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.03J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.02T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.00A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.00L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.00K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 3.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNSH
1.92 G
All situations
4 G3.4
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
2 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF35%65%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.90 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNSH
28
Shots on goal
24
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/3
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
17
8
Blocked shots
15
16
Giveaways
24
9
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011+110.02012—26:05
4B. ByramD112+130.13010—24:58
24D. CozensC000050.241023622:23
25O. PowerD101-130.18000—21:57
12J. GreenwayL000-100.003003319:40
89A. TuchR000-120.012103319:16
10H. JokiharjuD000-100.00120—18:22
77J. PeterkaR000+120.19100—17:25
21K. OkposoR000-120.121004015:25
71V. OlofssonL000+220.05000—14:36
75C. CliftonD000010.21300—14:00
50E. RobinsonL000-130.36110—13:54
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.022026713:17
78J. BrysonD000000.00000—13:13
9Z. BensonL000-120.28010—12:09
53J. SkinnerL000+100.00100—11:51
19P. KrebsC011+110.080006311:42
13L. RousekR000+100.00010—08:33
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31E. Comrie(L)24204.8332.74-1.2656:47

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).