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Senators at Predators
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV BSSO, TSN5·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Ottawa Senators 4-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 18:31 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 75% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.3 to 1.4; shots on goal were OTT 25, NSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 24 of 25 (.960). Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (2 G, 1 A), 2. Gustav Nyquist (1 G, 2 A), 3. Juuse Saros (24 saves, .960).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    G. Nyquist1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros24 saves, .960

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11401100125
NSHNSH2819119436

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    M. McCarron(9)
    R. Josi (43), C. Smith (13)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:23
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(13)PPG
    G. Nyquist (32), T. Novak (20)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:44
  3. OTT
    D. Batherson(20)PPG
    J. Sanderson (20), T. Stützle (40)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:58

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(14)
    G. Nyquist (33), R. McDonagh (17)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    18:31

3rd period

  1. NSH
    G. Nyquist(16)
    F. Forsberg (32), R. O'Reilly (29)
    snapxG 0.52win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-4
    13:12

Penalties

OTT 11 PIM·NSH 9 PIM

1st

  • 4:12OTTJakob Chychrun · Trippingdrawn by Cody Glass2 min
  • 8:20NSHMichael McCarron · Fightingdrawn by Mark Kastelic5 min
  • 8:20OTTMark Kastelic · Fightingdrawn by Michael McCarron5 min
  • 8:50NSHColton Sissons · Trippingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 17:28NSHKiefer Sherwood · Trippingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

2nd

  • 8:24OTTMark Kastelic · Trippingdrawn by Luke Schenn2 min

3rd

  • 7:08OTTClaude Giroux · High stickingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalOTT goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, 2nd 18:31 — NSH 75% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Nyquist · Goal · xG 0.52M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.34M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.18G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.17R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.17C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.14K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.13L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.08Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.08C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.06D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.06K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.06M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.06L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.05A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04M. McCarron · Goal · xG 0.04L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.04A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.03M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01
NSH4 G · 3.3 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNSH
1.41 G
All situations
4 G3.3
1.00 G
Even strength
3 G3.0
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT19%81%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.39 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNSH
25
Shots on goal
36
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/2
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
9
16
Hits
18
25
Blocked shots
15
18
Giveaways
10
7
Takeaways
18

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD011010.00130—25:06
18T. StützleC011020.41100021:13
6J. ChychrunD000-120.02132—21:09
24J. Bernard-DockerD000000.00040—21:01
28C. GirouxR000010.050127020:03
72T. ChabotD000-310.03110—20:01
26E. BrannstromD000000.00040—19:26
57S. PintoC000-260.220202418:41
21M. JosephR000010.001005018:23
7B. TkachukL000-250.32300—18:07
19D. BathersonR101030.19100—16:02
71R. GreigC000-100.002102915:35
91V. TarasenkoR000-320.10020—14:38
27P. KellyC000000.03110012:06
23T. HamonicD000-210.02010—09:56
81D. KubalikL000-100.01000—09:06
12M. KastelicC000000.002273307:52
9J. NorrisC000000.002006706:03
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70J. Korpisalo(L)36324.8893.27-0.7360:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).