Flames at Oilers 6-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Calgary Flames

▸6

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV CBC, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-3. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Hyman's goal at 4:34 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 20% to 36%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.0 to 3.6; shots on goal were CGY 31, EDM 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Dan Vladar stopped 32 of 35 (.914), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Noah Hanifin (2 G, 1 A), 2. Connor Zary (2 A), 3. Zach Hyman (2 G).

Three stars

★
N. Hanifin2 G, 1 A
★★
C. Zary2 A
★★★
Z. Hyman2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	312	210	19	631
EDM	18	113	114	335

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

N. Kadri(21)
W. Duehr (5), N. Hanifin (22)
backhandxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
2:02
M. Pospisil(6)
C. Zary (16), B. Pachal (1)
snapxG 0.14win prob +15 ptsVideo
2-0
9:11
N. Hanifin(10)
M. Backlund (17), J. Huberdeau (26)
snapxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
3-0
15:53
Z. Hyman(36)PPG
C. McDavid (67), E. Bouchard (40)
batxG 0.16win prob +9 ptsVideo
3-1
18:29

2nd period

Z. Hyman(37)
L. Draisaitl (43), C. McDavid (68)
backhandxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-2
4:34
D. Hunt(1)
J. Huberdeau (27), O. Kylington (1)
snapxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
4-2
11:47
N. Hanifin(11)PPG
C. Zary (17), R. Andersson (24)
snapxG 0.14win prob +9 ptsVideo
5-2
14:09

3rd period

B. Coleman(23)EN
A. Mangiapane (21)
wristxG 0.48Video
6-2
12:51
M. Janmark(4)
M. Ekholm (20)
backhandxG 0.19Video
6-3
16:16

Penalties

34 PIM·

46 PIM

1st

12:46Zach Hyman · Hookingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
17:42Rasmus Andersson · Trippingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
19:46Rasmus Andersson · Roughingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
19:46Connor McDavid · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
20:00Darnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
20:00Jonathan Huberdeau · Roughingdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min

2nd

7:02Mattias Janmark · Cross checkingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
7:02Blake Coleman · Embellishment2 min
9:06Blake Coleman · Fightingdrawn by Mattias Janmark5 min
9:06Mattias Janmark · Fightingdrawn by Blake Coleman5 min
12:14Leon Draisaitl · Hookingdrawn by Martin Pospisil2 min
16:11Jonathan Huberdeau · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Holloway2 min
18:59Corey Perry · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
18:59Mattias Ekholm · Slashingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
18:59Jonathan Huberdeau · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
18:59Corey Perry · Fightingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar5 min
18:59MacKenzie Weegar · Fightingdrawn by Corey Perry5 min
19:46Rasmus Andersson · Holdingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min

3rd

16:45Blake Coleman · Misconduct10 min
16:45Dylan Holloway · Misconduct10 min
18:22Evander Kane · Cross checkingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
18:22Evander Kane · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Zach Hyman, 2nd 4:34 — EDM 20% → 36%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 4.0 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 3.6 xG · 40 att EDM

3 G · 4.0 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.65 G
All situations: 3 G4.0; 2.54 G
Even strength: 2 G2.8; 0.41 G
Power play: 1 G1.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

35%65%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.93 – 3.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 35; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 1/4
Power play: 1/3; 34
Penalty minutes: 46; 32
Hits: 32; 25
Blocked shots: 12; 7
Giveaways: 15; 4
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Calgary Flames skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55N. HanifinD	2	1	3	+3	7	0.88	0	4	0	—	25:05
11M. BacklundC	0	1	1	+1	5	0.23	1	0	0	61	21:44
4R. AnderssonD	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	0	1	6	—	21:34
8C. TanevD	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	0	4	0	—	21:03
52M. WeegarD	0	0	0	-1	4	0.18	2	2	5	—	20:24
17Y. SharangovichC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	0	3	0	14	19:36
10J. HuberdeauL	0	2	2	+1	0	0.57	1	2	6	—	19:35
91N. KadriC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.18	1	1	0	54	17:22
88A. MangiapaneL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.13	3	0	0	—	16:46
58O. KylingtonD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.07	0	3	0	—	16:29
47C. ZaryC	0	2	2	+1	0	0.06	2	0	0	0	14:45
20B. ColemanL	1	0	1	0	2	0.82	3	0	17	—	14:12
94B. PachalD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	5	1	0	—	13:38
15D. HuntL	1	0	1	+2	1	0.06	4	0	0	—	13:21
76M. PospisilC	1	0	1	0	1	0.14	6	1	0	0	12:24
21K. RooneyC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	3	0	0	09:09
22J. PelletierL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	100	07:28
71W. DuehrR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.14	1	0	0	—	06:46

Calgary Flames goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
80D. Vladar(W)	35	32	3	.914	3.98	+0.98	59:52

Season series

EDM leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score