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Maple Leafs at Avalanche
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
3
FinalTV NHLN, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Bertuzzi's goal at 17:09 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.7 to 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 30, COL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Alexandar Georgiev stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Bertuzzi (3 G), 2. William Nylander (3 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    T. Bertuzzi3 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11221414430
COLCOL2110919329

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(8)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (60), C. Makar (48)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:16
  2. COL
    A. Cogliano(5)
    N. MacKinnon (61), M. Rantanen (44)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    11:07
  3. TOR
    T. Bertuzzi(8)PPG
    M. Marner (49), W. Nylander (45)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-2
    13:42

2nd period

  1. TOR
    T. Bertuzzi(9)
    W. Nylander (46), M. Domi (23)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:45
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(23)
    M. Knies (14), T. Brodie (16)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +22 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:48

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(30)
    N. MacKinnon (62), B. Byram (12)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-3
    4:41
  2. TOR
    T. Bertuzzi(10)PPG
    W. Nylander (47), A. Matthews (25)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +38 ptsVideo
    4-3
    17:09

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:49TORSimon Benoit · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:08COLRoss Colton · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min

3rd

  • 15:56COLMikko Rantanen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTOR goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Tyler Bertuzzi, 3rd 17:09 — TOR 53% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.23M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.18M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.16A. Cogliano · Goal · xG 0.14R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.14A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.13L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.09B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.09C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.09C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.07L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.05M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.05B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.05R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.02L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.00S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 2.7 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCOL
2.34 G
All situations
3 G2.7
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.72 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR43%57%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.24 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
29
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
21
24
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD011-110.03130—24:40
22J. McCabeD000+100.00510—21:52
16M. MarnerR112+110.08110—21:19
44M. RiellyD000-130.15210—20:43
37T. LiljegrenD000000.00120—20:40
34A. MatthewsC011+140.160105020:16
88W. NylanderR033050.32000—19:29
59T. BertuzziL303040.72130—17:53
2S. BenoitD000+100.02332—16:31
91J. TavaresC000020.152106315:48
11M. DomiC011-110.220103315:36
23M. KniesL011+120.16100—14:41
85W. LagessonD000010.04030—14:08
64D. KampfC000000.002005012:22
74B. McMannC000040.07210012:19
29P. HolmbergR000-100.11010—11:16
89N. RobertsonL000020.05000—10:38
75R. ReavesR000-100.01120—08:22
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)29263.8972.65-0.3560:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).