Stars at Hurricanes 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸2

Carolina Hurricanes

FinalTV BSSW, BSSO·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Carolina Hurricanes 2-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Wyatt Johnston's goal at 8:15 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 1.7 to 1.2; shots on goal were DAL 16, CAR 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 14 of 16 (.875), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Wyatt Johnston (1 G), 2. Miro Heiskanen (2 A), 3. Sebastian Aho (1 G).

Three stars

★
W. Johnston1 G
★★
M. Heiskanen2 A
★★★
S. Aho1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	16	17	03	216
CAR	07	110	04	121

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Robertson(19)
M. Heiskanen (29), J. Pavelski (29)
wristxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
1-0
16:38

2nd period

S. Aho(22)
J. Fast (10), A. Svechnikov (22)
wristxG 0.14win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-1
2:16
W. Johnston(19)
J. Benn (25), M. Heiskanen (30)
wristxG 0.05win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-1
8:15

Penalties

4 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

5:36Brady Skjei · Holdingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min

2nd

4:22Jason Robertson · Hookingdrawn by Jaccob Slavin2 min
15:24Jack Drury · Holdingdrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min
19:59Dmitry Orlov · Interferencedrawn by Thomas Harley2 min

3rd

4:45Dmitry Orlov · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
8:00Joe Pavelski · Slashingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CAR

Biggest swing: Wyatt Johnston, 2nd 8:15 — DAL 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.7 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.2 xG · 22 att CAR

1 G · 1.7 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.22 G
All situations: 1 G1.7; 0.82 G
Even strength: 1 G1.4; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 66 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.20 – 1.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

16
Shots on goal: 21; 61%
Faceoffs: 39%; 0/4
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 8; 19
Hits: 19; 25
Blocked shots: 13; 8
Giveaways: 15; 4
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	0	3	0	—	24:30
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	3	6	0	—	24:11
4M. HeiskanenD	0	2	2	+1	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	22:24
55T. HarleyD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.20	0	3	0	—	20:47
21J. RobertsonL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.20	2	2	2	—	19:58
16J. PavelskiC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	2	2	67	18:47
53W. JohnstonC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.05	0	3	0	70	18:35
24R. HintzC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.18	0	0	0	60	18:23
14J. BennL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.14	2	0	0	67	15:25
95M. DucheneC	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	0	50	15:21
11L. StankovenC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.20	0	0	0	0	15:20
27M. MarchmentL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	4	0	0	—	13:10
18S. SteelC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	63	12:53
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	0	0	12:11
10T. DellandreaC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	1	0	0	67	12:05
44J. HanleyD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	11:27
15C. SmithC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	10:56
33D. PouliotD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	09:56

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(W)	21	20	1	.952	1.73	+0.73	59:41

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Feb 132@4Final
Feb 242@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score