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Avalanche at Lightning
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV ALT, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 8:13 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 5.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were COL 31, TBL 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 33 of 37 (.892); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 1 A), 2. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11111119331
TBLTBL21508416639

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Byram(7)
    M. Rantanen (41), N. MacKinnon (56)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    15:08
  2. TBL
    B. Point(26)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:18
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(35)
    B. Hagel (31)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:25

2nd period

  1. COL
    B. Byram(8)
    R. Colton (18), A. Lehkonen (9)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:03

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(6)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (57), J. Drouin (21)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-2
    3:40
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(23)
    N. Kucherov (57), V. Hedman (44)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +26 ptsVideo
    3-3
    4:00
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(36)
    B. Point (30), S. Stamkos (27)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +29 ptsVideo
    3-4
    8:13
  4. TBL
    A. Cirelli(12)EN
    B. Hagel (32), E. Cernak (7)
    wristxG 0.64win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:28
  5. TBL
    N. Perbix(2)EN
    E. Lilleberg (3), M. Eyssimont (8)
    wristxG 0.58Video
    3-6
    19:34

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:47COLJosh Manson · Slashingdrawn by Michael Eyssimont2 min
  • 11:05TBLHaydn Fleury · Interferencedrawn by Kurtis MacDermid2 min

2nd

  • 1:01COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Haydn Fleury2 min
  • 15:14TBLErik Cernak · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 1:40TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Devon Toews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCOL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 3rd 8:13 — TBL 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.64N. Perbix · Goal · xG 0.58N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.57E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.27S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.26S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.23B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.23A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.21A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.16N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.14T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.13M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.13L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.11M. Eyssimont · Missed · xG 0.10M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.09A. Barré-Boulet · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.07M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.07M. Eyssimont · Missed · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.06M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.05B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barré-Boulet · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04B. Point · On goal · xG 0.04T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL6 G · 5.7 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsTBL
2.53 G
All situations
4 G5.7
1.92 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL33%67%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 3.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
39
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
26
Hits
27
15
Blocked shots
17
5
Giveaways
3
9
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-320.16220—27:32
96M. RantanenR011-140.420222526:25
27J. DrouinL011-110.02300—25:02
29N. MacKinnonC022-150.151204723:55
7D. ToewsD000-320.03110—21:54
62A. LehkonenL112-210.32000—20:17
49S. GirardD000-220.02010—18:13
4B. ByramD202-120.36110—18:05
42J. MansonD000010.02602—16:59
28M. WoodL000-330.39310—16:41
9Z. PariseL000-330.371105015:27
20R. ColtonC011-220.170104813:50
12R. JohansenC000-120.083005012:06
3J. JohnsonD000+100.00200—11:05
11A. CoglianoC000010.020102509:27
94J. KivirantaL000000.00110—09:25
22F. OlofssonL000000.001104008:14
56K. MacDermidL000000.00100—03:45
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(L)37334.8923.61-0.3957:38

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).