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Blues at Flames
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
▸4
Calgary Flames
3
FinalTV BSMW, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Calgary Flames 4-3. The Blues came back from two goals down. The Flames led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 19:12 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 49% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.7 to 2.3; shots on goal were STL 26, CGY 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Jacob Markstrom stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Saad (2 G), 2. Yegor Sharangovich (1 G, 1 A), 3. Noah Hanifin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    B. Saad2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    Y. Sharangovich1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    N. Hanifin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL0102927426
CGYCGY11721305335

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Weegar(11)
    R. Andersson (20), N. Kadri (22)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:38

2nd period

  1. STL
    B. Saad(12)
    C. Parayko (8), N. Leddy (12)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:27
  2. CGY
    N. Hanifin(8)
    Y. Sharangovich (14), C. Tanev (8)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:13
  3. CGY
    Y. Sharangovich(20)
    J. Huberdeau (20), E. Lindholm (23)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    12:17
  4. STL
    B. Schenn(11)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:13

3rd period

  1. STL
    J. Kyrou(13)
    R. Thomas (31), N. Leddy (13)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-3
    6:56
  2. STL
    B. Saad(13)
    C. Parayko (9), N. Leddy (14)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +47 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:12

Penalties

STL 6 PIM·CGY 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:03CGYCole Schwindt · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Saad2 min

2nd

  • 8:37STLOskar Sundqvist · High stickingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
  • 17:06STLAlexey Toropchenko · Slashingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

3rd

  • 12:24STLTorey Krug · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalSTL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 3rd 19:12 — STL 49% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.25M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.17M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.16E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.15Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.15M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.13M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.12C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.11E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.09D. Gilbert · On goal · xG 0.08C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.08M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.08C. Schwindt · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.05R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.05N. Hanifin · Goal · xG 0.05M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.05M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.05Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.05M. Weegar · Goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.02C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.02C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 2.7 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsCGY
2.34 G
All situations
3 G2.7
1.83 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL44%56%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 2.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsCGY
26
Shots on goal
35
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
27
Hits
19
17
Blocked shots
13
12
Giveaways
21
11
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD022+220.09440—25:17
4N. LeddyD033+300.03020—24:22
47T. KrugD000-110.12202—20:33
18R. ThomasC011+110.040004220:22
72J. FaulkD000-220.05010—20:05
89P. BuchnevichL000020.20000—18:50
25J. KyrouR101+130.33010—16:32
10B. SchennC101+210.303206716:29
20B. SaadL202+150.43010—16:02
51M. KesselD000010.01000—15:23
12K. HayesR000-120.141107115:14
13A. ToropchenkoR000-100.00502—14:22
70O. SundqvistC000-100.001221413:16
63J. NeighboursL000020.28210—13:10
6M. ScandellaD000010.19100—13:08
26N. WalkerL000010.0141010013:07
59N. AlexandrovC000010.02000009:12
79S. BlaisL000010.04410—08:36
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(W)35323.9142.66-0.3460:00

Season series

STL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).