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Maple Leafs at Flames
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Calgary Flames
3
FinalTV TVAS, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Calgary Flames 4-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 13:39 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.7 to 3.0; shots on goal were TOR 32, CGY 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Martin Jones stopped 23 of 26 (.885); Dan Vladar stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (3 G, 1 A), 2. William Nylander (2 A), 3. Dan Vladar (28 saves, .875).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    D. Vladar28 saves, .875

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1731609432
CGYCGY21111005326

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    Y. Sharangovich(19)
    R. Andersson (19), J. Huberdeau (18)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:52
  2. CGY
    N. Kadri(16)PPG
    E. Lindholm (22), J. Huberdeau (19)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-2
    15:23
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(35)
    N. Gregor (4), B. McMann (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:24

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(36)
    W. Nylander (37), P. Holmberg (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:08
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(19)PPG
    W. Nylander (38), A. Matthews (17)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-2
    7:44
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(37)
    M. Knies (9), T. Brodie (10)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    13:39
  4. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(9)
    M. Backlund (15), N. Hanifin (17)
    wristxG 0.84win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    17:53

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·CGY 6 PIM

1st

  • 0:56TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Yegor Sharangovich2 min
  • 15:11TORMorgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min

2nd

  • 5:52CGYA.J. Greer · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 5:52TORSimon Benoit · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by A.J. Greer2 min
  • 7:20CGYNoah Hanifin · Trippingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min

3rd

  • 11:17TORTimothy Liljegren · Closing hand on puck2 min
  • 18:56CGYElias Lindholm · Slashingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalTOR goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 2nd 13:39 — TOR 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.84N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.17C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.17E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.14N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.14E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.10A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.08M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.06R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.05C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.05C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.03N. DeSimone · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ruzicka · Missed · xG 0.03N. DeSimone · Missed · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.03R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.03J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pospisil · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02N. DeSimone · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ruzicka · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.00N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCGY
3.74 G
All situations
3 G3.0
2.53 G
Even strength
2 G2.7
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR49%51%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.91 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCGY
32
Shots on goal
26
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
19
13
Blocked shots
13
6
Giveaways
9
11
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD011-110.25010—24:35
22J. McCabeD000+100.00430—23:03
44M. RiellyD000-120.10422—22:58
16M. MarnerR101+151.30010—22:43
34A. MatthewsC314+350.560005020:37
2S. BenoitD000000.02212—20:13
88W. NylanderR022-120.1802210019:02
91J. TavaresC000-240.411106518:19
59T. BertuzziL000-100.08000—17:10
19C. JarnkrokC000000.2220010016:07
55M. GiordanoD000+220.10000—14:38
37T. LiljegrenD000+110.01012—13:59
64D. KampfC000+120.026105612:00
29P. HolmbergR011+130.11300—11:25
23M. KniesL011010.01200—10:36
11M. DomiC000030.23000010:31
18N. GregorL011+110.07200—09:03
74B. McMannC011+100.01100007:11
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31M. Jones(W)26233.8853.03+0.0359:38

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).