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San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators

FinalTV NBCSCA, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the San Jose Sharks 5-4. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Senators led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vladimir Tarasenko's goal at 19:55 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were SJS 18, OTT 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 2.8 goals below expected; Joonas Korpisalo stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tim Stützle (4 A), 2. Drake Batherson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Vladimir Tarasenko (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Stützle4 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    D. Batherson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    V. Tarasenko1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
SJSSJS192415418
OTTOTT28222111541

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk (13), A. Zub (9)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:12
  2. OTT
    slapxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    9:58
  3. SJS
    slapxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:35

2nd period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:53
  2. SJS
    wristxG 0.10win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-2
    6:20
  3. OTT
    snapxG 0.05win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-3
    7:11
  4. OTT
    A. Zub (10), T. Stützle (30)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-4
    12:59

3rd period

  1. SJS
    T. Hertl (17), M. Ferraro (13)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +40 ptsVideo
    4-4
    16:56
  2. OTT
    A. Zub (11), T. Stützle (31)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +48 ptsVideo
    4-5
    19:55

Penalties

SJS 4 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:30OTTRidly Greig · Hookingdrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min
  • 18:02OTTDrake Batherson · Holdingdrawn by Mario Ferraro2 min

2nd

  • 14:36SJSAnthony Duclair · Hookingdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min
  • 19:51SJSJan Rutta · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalSJS goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko, 3rd 19:55 — OTT 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.15V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.14C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.09D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.08R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.08D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.08T. Chabot · Goal · xG 0.07R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.06Z. MacEwen · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.05D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.05V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.04D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.03Z. MacEwen · Missed · xG 0.03M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.03Z. MacEwen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03R. Chartier · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.02T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kastelic · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.00E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.00J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 2.2 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

SJSvsOTT
1.84 G
All situations
5 G2.2
1.54 G
Even strength
5 G2.0
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
SJS40%60%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 2.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

SJSvsOTT
18
Shots on goal
41
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
38
Hits
26
26
Blocked shots
15
6
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
San Jose Sharks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
38M. FerraroD033+210.00340—28:08
64M. GranlundC011+100.004104021:31
44M. VlasicD101+110.19250—20:58
72W. EklundL000020.15130—19:55
3H. ThrunD000-110.00060—19:32
84J. RuttaD000000.00812—18:06
20F. ZetterlundL000010.16310—17:57
48T. HertlC011000.021004317:04
10A. DuclairL112+120.23102—16:10
33C. AddisonD000-200.00010—15:47
18F. ZadinaR101050.33410—15:05
11L. KuninC000-210.163005014:22
83N. OkhotiukD000-200.00320—13:28
68M. HoffmanC011-100.00100012:52
90J. BaileyR000-220.26200—12:50
94A. BarabanovL011010.14100—12:11
62K. LabancR101010.10100—11:30
22R. CarpenterC000000.010104308:39
San Jose Sharks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29M. Blackwood(L)41365.8782.25-2.7559:55

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).