Skip to content
Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Carolina Hurricanes
▸3
Final/OTTV MSG-B, BSSO·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime, Martin Necas scoring at 1:30. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Martin Necas's goal at 1:30 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.0 to 2.0; shots on goal were BUF 21, CAR 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Antti Raanta stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Martin Necas (1 G), 2. Antti Raanta (19 saves, .905), 3. Dmitry Orlov (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    M. Necas1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    A. Raanta19 saves, .905
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    D. Orlov1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF06181502221
CARCAR19091712327

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    T. DeAngelo(1)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    12:43

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(4)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.34win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:51

3rd period

  1. CAR
    B. Skjei(2)
    S. Aho (7), D. Orlov (5)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +29 ptsVideo
    1-2
    7:54
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(3)PPG
    T. Thompson (5), C. Mittelstadt (9)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:23

Overtime

  1. CAR
    M. Necas(5)
    S. Aho (8), B. Skjei (8)
    tip-inxG 0.31win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:30

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 5:09CARJordan Staal · Hookingdrawn by Connor Clifton2 min
  • 8:19CARJordan Staal · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 12:19BUFVictor Olofsson · Interferencedrawn by Brent Burns2 min

2nd

  • 1:25BUFJJ Peterka · Holdingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min
  • 8:06BUFRyan Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 19:31BUFRasmus Dahlin · Slashingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

3rd

  • 8:32CARAndrei Svechnikov · Boardingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 16:12CARJordan Martinook · Trippingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Martin Necas, OT 1:30 — CAR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.31J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.24M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.21A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.17J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.15J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.14B. Skjei · Goal · xG 0.14J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.13J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.12J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.11S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.10T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.09T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.07D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.06A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.06T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.05T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.05J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.03T. DeAngelo · Goal · xG 0.03D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.03M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.03M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.03J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.03D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.02S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.00D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR3 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
2.02 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF33%67%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
21
Shots on goal
27
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
23
20
Blocked shots
7
11
Giveaways
18
14
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25O. PowerD000-200.06220—26:17
26R. DahlinD101+120.11122—23:37
37C. MittelstadtC011-210.060004621:39
89A. TuchR101040.80010—20:21
72T. ThompsonC011020.170203620:02
33R. JohnsonD000+110.03112—19:26
12J. GreenwayL000-110.01230—19:19
53J. SkinnerL000020.091006717:31
77J. PeterkaR000020.09012—17:25
75C. CliftonD000010.18510—17:03
10H. JokiharjuD000-100.00230—16:18
21K. OkposoR000010.15000—15:28
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.050006713:49
17T. JostC000+100.000001713:08
6E. JohnsonD000010.00030—12:38
71V. OlofssonL000000.01002—09:11
19P. KrebsC000020.1700010008:20
13L. RousekR000000.06010—06:40
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(O)27243.8892.96-0.0461:24

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).