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Avalanche at Sabres
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

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Colorado Avalanche
0
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, ALT2·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-0. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Casey Mittelstadt's goal at 1:39 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 68% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.3 to 2.1; shots on goal were COL 23, BUF 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.7 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 23 of 23 (1.000), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (23 saves, 1.000), 2. JJ Peterka (1 G), 3. Jeff Skinner (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen23 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Peterka1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0601106023
BUFBUF1112919429

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(4)
    J. Skinner (3)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:32

2nd period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(2)
    J. Skinner (4), H. Jokiharju (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    1:39
  2. BUF
    T. Jost(1)
    A. Tuch (4), O. Power (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    8:16

3rd period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(2)EN
    T. Thompson (2)
    wristxG 0.51
    0-4
    16:52

Penalties

COL 16 PIM·BUF 12 PIM

1st

  • 17:27COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Owen Power2 min
  • 19:28BUFZach Benson · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

2nd

  • 2:07COLTomas Tatar · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 12:50BUFMattias Samuelsson · Holdingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 15:28COLNathan MacKinnon · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 15:28COLNathan MacKinnon · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:30BUFJordan Greenway · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

3rd

  • 3:33BUFJordan Greenway · Trippingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 11:12BUFZach Benson · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 19:54BUFJeff Skinner · Cross checkingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCOL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt, 2nd 1:39 — BUF 68% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.50J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.47J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.32C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.24J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.16H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.15Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.15J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.07J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jost · Goal · xG 0.06J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.04M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.3 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsBUF
2.10 G
All situations
3 G3.3
1.30 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.80 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL46%54%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 2.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsBUF
23
Shots on goal
29
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/6
Power play
0/3
16
Penalty minutes
12
28
Hits
9
9
Blocked shots
21
9
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD000-200.08200—23:15
8C. MakarD000-100.17010—21:58
96M. RantanenR000-350.451026021:57
62A. LehkonenL000-200.02000—20:44
4B. ByramD000-110.17320—19:39
29N. MacKinnonC000-240.3400122018:23
49S. GirardD000-100.06110—17:45
12R. JohansenC000-160.502005816:46
42J. MansonD000-110.01410—16:37
13V. NichushkinR000-210.01100—16:20
22F. OlofssonL000010.031005014:44
20R. ColtonC000-110.094106713:33
25L. O'ConnorR000020.09100—13:25
28M. WoodL000-110.07510—12:38
3J. JohnsonD000-100.00010—12:30
27J. DrouinL000-100.00110—12:15
11A. CoglianoC000000.001005012:08
90T. TatarL000-100.001025010:10
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)28253.8932.34-0.6659:13

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).