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Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV NBCSP, TSN2·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Montréal Canadiens 3-2. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Frost's goal at 17:45 of the third period, which took the Flyers' chances from 52% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were MTL 29, PHI 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Cayden Primeau stopped 24 of 26 (.923); Felix Sandstrom stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Morgan Frost (2 G), 2. Felix Sandstrom (27 saves, .931), 3. Cam York (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PHI
    M. Frost2 G
  2. ★★
    PHI
    F. Sandstrom27 saves, .931
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    C. York1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL0141916229
PHIPHI0811128327

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    3:41
  2. MTL
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    9:39

3rd period

  1. PHI
    C. York (15)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +41 pts
    1-2
    17:45
  2. PHI
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.89win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    18:14
  3. MTL
    J. Evans (12), J. Ylonen (10)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +2 pts
    2-3
    19:37

Penalties

MTL 4 PIM·PHI 0 PIM

2nd

  • 1:39MTLDenis Gurianov · Trippingdrawn by Morgan Frost2 min
  • 17:59MTLMike Matheson · Trippingdrawn by Kieffer Bellows2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalMTL goalFinal: PHI 100%

Biggest swing: Morgan Frost, 3rd 17:45 — PHI 52% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
O. Tippett · Goal · xG 0.89R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.25M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.19K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.18T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.16J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.15M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.15W. Allison · On goal · xG 0.14J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.12T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.11M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.09N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.09J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.09M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.07M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.06N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.06K. Bellows · Missed · xG 0.06R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.05T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.04W. Allison · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.04K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.03B. Lemieux · Missed · xG 0.03M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.02M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.02K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.02C. York · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.02T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.00B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 3.4 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsPHI
2.42 G
All situations
2 G3.4
2.12 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL52%48%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsPHI
29
Shots on goal
27
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/0
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
0
16
Hits
22
16
Blocked shots
18
9
Giveaways
2
9
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8M. MathesonD000010.01012—22:59
58D. SavardD000030.09120—21:59
14N. SuzukiC000-330.100005619:36
44J. EdmundsonD000-110.03320—18:44
54J. HarrisD000030.10110—18:35
26J. KovacevicD000-120.04130—18:02
52J. BarronD000000.02310—18:02
68M. HoffmanC000-220.16000017:38
49R. Harvey-PinardL101-230.29120—17:07
27J. DrouinL000+100.000006316:43
11B. GallagherR101040.52010—15:17
71J. EvansC011+220.511106315:06
25D. GurianovR000000.15012—14:12
67C. TierneyC000010.011006713:15
57S. FarrellC000000.00000013:03
56J. YlonenR011+110.01110—12:42
60A. BelzileR000020.12000—12:21
55M. PezzettaL000010.21300—11:50
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Primeau(L)26242.9232.23+0.2358:49

Season series

MTL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).