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Sabres at Islanders
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
New York Islanders
▸3
FinalUBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Hudson Fasching's goal at 7:37 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.3 to 1.6; shots on goal were BUF 24, NYI 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 36 of 39 (.923); Ilya Sorokin stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Hudson Fasching (1 G, 1 A), 2. Josh Bailey (1 G, 1 A), 3. Casey Cizikas (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    H. Fasching1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Bailey1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    C. Cizikas1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF081719224
NYINYI08117214339

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(25)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    5:00
  2. NYI
    C. Cizikas(5)
    H. Fasching (6), A. Romanov (17)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    12:38

3rd period

  1. NYI
    J. Bailey(8)
    C. Cizikas (12), A. Romanov (18)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +24 pts
    1-2
    1:51
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(8)
    O. Power (20), U. Luukkonen (1)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +26 pts
    2-2
    4:59
  3. NYI
    H. Fasching(4)
    J. Bailey (17), O. Koivula (2)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +29 pts
    2-3
    7:37

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:04NYIAdam Pelech · Holdingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 13:02BUFOwen Power · Hookingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min
  • 13:10NYIKyle Palmieri · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen2 min

2nd

  • 15:43BUFRasmus Dahlin · Slashingdrawn by Bo Horvat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalBUF goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Hudson Fasching, 3rd 7:37 — NYI 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.23A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.22B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.19Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.18C. Cizikas · Goal · xG 0.16B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.13C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.13A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.12H. Fasching · Goal · xG 0.12B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.12A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.10K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.10P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09H. Fasching · On goal · xG 0.08H. Fasching · On goal · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.06P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.05C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.05S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.05K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.04K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03H. Fasching · Missed · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.01A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.00N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.00A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI3 G · 3.3 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYI
1.62 G
All situations
3 G3.3
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF22%78%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.63 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYI
24
Shots on goal
39
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
9
Hits
23
8
Blocked shots
32
7
Giveaways
10
1
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000000.03022—25:01
25O. PowerD011+120.16002—23:30
10H. JokiharjuD000+100.00120—22:14
53J. SkinnerL000010.120005018:31
78J. BrysonD000000.00000—18:15
24D. CozensC101-140.201102517:58
72T. ThompsonC000030.352004417:48
37C. MittelstadtC000020.28000016:59
22J. QuinnR000000.05100—16:36
19P. KrebsC000020.181006714:59
21K. OkposoR101-120.042001714:43
46I. LyubushkinD000-210.02020—14:31
29V. HinostrozaC000010.02010014:26
12J. GreenwayL000-120.09000—14:13
38K. ClagueD000-200.00100—14:05
17T. JostC000010.030004512:14
71V. OlofssonL000020.05000—11:53
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.02000010:36
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)39363.9233.31+0.3157:28

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).