Stars at Blue Jackets 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Dallas Stars

▸2

Columbus Blue Jackets

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Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 2-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Wyatt Johnston's goal at 0:55 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were DAL 34, CBJ 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Daniil Tarasov stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 2.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (27 saves, .964), 2. Daniil Tarasov (32 saves, .970), 3. Wyatt Johnston (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Oettinger27 saves, .964
★★
D. Tarasov32 saves, .970
★★★
W. Johnston1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	014	113	17	234
CBJ	013	07	18	128

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

W. Johnston(8)
R. Suter (7), J. Benn (17)
snapxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
1-0
0:55

3rd period

J. Robertson(24)EN
Unassisted
snapxG 0.52win prob +7 pts
2-0
18:53
K. Johnson(7)
J. Roslovic (12), G. Nyquist (8)
backhandxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
2-1
19:45

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

2nd

19:54Nils Lundkvist · Slashingdrawn by Kent Johnson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CBJ

Biggest swing: Wyatt Johnston, 2nd 0:55 — DAL 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 4.1 xG · 47 att CBJ

1 G · 2.4 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.11 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 3.61 G
Even strength: 1 G2.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

68%32%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.49 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 28; 63%
Faceoffs: 37%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 9
Hits: 33; 12
Blocked shots: 26; 4
Giveaways: 10; 5
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.02	1	1	0	—	23:59
2J. HakanpääD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	21:02
20R. SuterD	0	1	1	0	2	0.21	0	1	0	—	20:09
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	19:29
21J. RobertsonL	1	0	1	+1	6	0.93	0	0	0	—	19:26
16J. PavelskiC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.49	1	1	0	63	18:48
5N. LundkvistD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	2	2	—	18:25
6C. MillerD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.05	0	0	0	—	17:28
24R. HintzC	0	0	0	+1	4	0.50	0	0	0	40	17:05
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	50	15:39
27M. MarchmentL	0	0	0	0	8	0.91	0	1	0	100	14:53
91T. SeguinC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.05	0	0	0	80	14:31
10T. DellandreaC	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	1	0	0	13:24
14J. BennL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.29	1	0	0	80	13:11
11L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	33	13:02
53W. JohnstonC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.30	0	1	0	67	12:43
25J. KivirantaL	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	0	0	—	12:42
15R. TufteL	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	2	0	0	—	12:04

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(W)	28	27	1	.964	2.43	+1.43	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 192@1this game
Feb 184@1Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score