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Sabres at Avalanche
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
2
FinalTV ALT, MSG-B·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Tuch's goal at 7:08 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 61% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.2 to 3.2; shots on goal were BUF 21, COL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 86% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 39 of 41 (.951), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (39 saves, .951), 3. Valeri Nichushkin (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen39 saves, .951
  3. ★★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF2111911421
COLCOL012012217241

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(24)
    C. Mittelstadt (12), K. Clague (2)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:54
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(15)PPG
    R. Dahlin (25), T. Thompson (22)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    7:08

2nd period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(10)
    T. Jost (6), V. Olofsson (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +9 pts
    3-0
    17:11

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(20)
    V. Nichushkin (7), A. Lehkonen (13)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +4 pts
    3-1
    8:20
  2. COL
    E. Rodrigues(7)
    V. Nichushkin (8), C. Makar (20)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +3 pts
    3-2
    18:38
  3. BUF
    D. Cozens(11)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.55win prob +3 pts
    4-2
    19:02

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 1:04BUFCasey Fitzgerald · High stickingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 6:09COLserved by D. Hunt · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 0:55COLCale Makar · Hookingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 12:42BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalBUF goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Alex Tuch, 1st 7:08 — BUF 61% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.39A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.24A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.18E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.18M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.16E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.15B. Meyers · On goal · xG 0.14A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.13A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.12B. Meyers · Missed · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.11E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.10C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.08J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.06J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.04A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hunt · Missed · xG 0.01B. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Englund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01
COL2 G · 4.2 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCOL
3.23 G
All situations
2 G4.2
1.32 G
Even strength
2 G3.1
0.31 G
Power play
0 G1.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF14%86%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 4.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCOL
21
Shots on goal
41
30%
Faceoffs
70%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
10
Hits
24
23
Blocked shots
4
3
Giveaways
5
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000+110.00440—31:31
26R. DahlinD112+110.13040—29:27
38K. ClagueD011+120.02020—23:56
72T. ThompsonC112+220.690103822:50
89A. TuchR101+151.05120—21:16
24D. CozensC101+120.630003318:20
37C. MittelstadtC011030.121103618:05
20L. PilutD000010.10100—17:44
77J. PeterkaR000010.07000—15:15
22J. QuinnR000+110.13000—14:27
45C. FitzgeraldD000-100.00132—14:24
17T. JostC011000.00110013:54
71V. OlofssonL011-100.00020—13:40
74R. AsplundC000000.00000013:04
29V. HinostrozaC000000.00002010:00
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.000006709:37
19P. KrebsC000020.261302508:30
25O. PowerD000000.00000—00:00
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)41392.9514.22+2.2260:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).