Coyotes at Islanders 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Utah Mammoth

▸2

New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the New York Islanders 2-0. The Coyotes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Travis Boyd's goal at 1:00 of the third period, which took the Coyotes' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Coyotes, 3.9 to 2.7; shots on goal were ARI 28, NYI 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 2.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Karel Vejmelka (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Travis Boyd (1 G), 3. Ilya Sorokin (26 saves, .963).

Three stars

★
K. Vejmelka24 saves, 1.000
★★
T. Boyd1 G
★★★
I. Sorokin26 saves, .963

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ARI	08	09	211	228
NYI	010	03	011	024

Scoring

2 goals

3rd period

T. Boyd(2)PPG
C. Keller (10), J. Moser (6)
wristxG 0.19win prob +19 pts
1-0
1:00
J. McBain(2)EN
C. Keller (11), B. Hayton (3)
wristxG 0.49win prob +3 pts
2-0
19:29

Penalties

11 PIM·

11 PIM

1st

2:48Matias Maccelli · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min
5:16Joshua Brown · Fightingdrawn by Matt Martin5 min
5:16Matt Martin · Fightingdrawn by Joshua Brown5 min
11:49Christian Fischer · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

2nd

3:59Brock Nelson · Interferencedrawn by J.J. Moser2 min
19:52Josh Bailey · Holdingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min

3rd

5:51Travis Boyd · Trippingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
10:24Mathew Barzal · Trippingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Travis Boyd, 3rd 1:00 — ARI 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.9 xG · 38 att NYI

0 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.91 G
All situations: 0 G2.7; 2.60 G
Even strength: 0 G1.8; 0.81 G
Power play: 0 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

61%39%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.32 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 24; 30%
Faceoffs: 70%; 1/3
Power play: 0/3; 11
Penalty minutes: 11; 27
Hits: 36; 18
Blocked shots: 18; 8
Giveaways: 15; 5
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Utah Mammoth skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
90J. MoserD	0	1	1	0	2	0.04	0	2	0	—	24:56
14S. GostisbehereD	0	0	0	0	3	0.53	1	0	0	—	20:00
9C. KellerR	0	2	2	+1	3	0.34	1	0	0	—	19:48
29B. HaytonC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.15	3	1	0	36	18:54
2P. NemethD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	1	1	0	—	18:38
17N. BjugstadC	0	0	0	0	2	0.55	1	1	0	41	17:46
4J. VälimäkiD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	17:42
36C. FischerR	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	4	1	2	—	17:15
51T. StecherD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	17:02
72T. BoydC	1	0	1	0	3	0.86	2	1	2	20	16:34
67L. CrouseL	0	0	0	0	2	0.30	2	1	0	—	16:17
3J. BrownD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	5	5	—	16:00
22J. McBainC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.82	2	3	0	25	15:56
63M. MaccelliL	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	2	—	15:37
12N. RitchieL	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	0	0	—	14:43
38L. O'BrienC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	0	12:05
11D. GuentherR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	09:43
61D. MayoD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	05:04

Utah Mammoth goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)	24	24	0	1.000	2.67	+2.67	60:00

Season series

ARI leads 2-0

Nov 102@0this game
Dec 164@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Utah Mammoth at New York Islanders

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score