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Coyotes at Sabres
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV BSAZ, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Coyotes scored first and never trailed. The Coyotes led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Liam O'Brien's goal at 2:24 of the third period, which took the Coyotes' chances from 73% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were ARI 24, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 84% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Eric Comrie stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Karel Vejmelka (32 saves, .970), 2. Matias Maccelli (1 G, 1 A), 3. Clayton Keller (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    K. Vejmelka32 saves, .970
  2. ★★
    ARI
    M. Maccelli1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    C. Keller1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI2701126424
BUFBUF11301406133

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    L. Crouse(6)
    M. Maccelli (8)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:23
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(8)PPG
    R. Dahlin (9), J. Quinn (4)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +10 pts
    1-1
    14:26
  3. ARI
    M. Maccelli(1)PPG
    J. Välimäki (3), B. Hayton (2)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    17:30

3rd period

  1. ARI
    L. O'Brien(1)
    J. Moser (5), C. Keller (9)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    2:24
  2. ARI
    C. Keller(4)EN
    L. O'Brien (2), T. Boyd (6)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    17:50

Penalties

ARI 12 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:49ARINick Ritchie · Interferencedrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 4:36ARILawson Crouse · Trippingdrawn by Owen Power2 min
  • 10:56BUFKyle Okposo · Roughingdrawn by Jack McBain2 min
  • 10:56ARIJack McBain · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 14:08ARIDysin Mayo · Boardingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 15:50BUFZemgus Girgensons · Interferencedrawn by Travis Boyd2 min

2nd

  • 8:08BUFPeyton Krebs · High sticking double minordrawn by Nick Ritchie4 min
  • 11:40ARIserved by M. Maccelli · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 4:14ARILawson Crouse · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 4:14BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Lawson Crouse2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalARI goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Liam O'Brien, 3rd 2:24 — ARI 73% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.33O. Power · Missed · xG 0.18C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.16A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.15C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.15Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.14J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.07R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.07V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.07R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.06A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.06I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.05K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03K. Clague · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.02R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.02L. Pilut · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.00V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 3.5 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsBUF
1.93 G
All situations
1 G3.5
1.12 G
Even strength
0 G2.8
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI16%84%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.37 – 3.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsBUF
24
Shots on goal
33
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/3
Power play
1/4
12
Penalty minutes
10
15
Hits
12
9
Blocked shots
6
5
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
90J. MoserD011+200.00110—24:22
9C. KellerR112+210.57100—20:20
3J. BrownD000020.24120—19:41
4J. VälimäkiD011+220.04010—19:06
14S. GostisbehereD000020.12010—19:03
17N. BjugstadC000+130.211002819:01
36C. FischerR000020.04000—18:14
67L. CrouseL101+130.13104—18:02
63M. MaccelliL112+120.13010—17:04
72T. BoydC011+220.200004516:23
29B. HaytonC011000.001004614:47
51T. StecherD000+100.00010—14:29
22J. McBainC000000.051025813:30
2P. NemethD000+100.00200—13:23
12N. RitchieL000010.09212—11:56
11D. GuentherR000020.08000—11:20
38L. O'BrienC112+220.03310011:17
61D. MayoD000000.00102—07:32
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)33321.9703.48+2.4860:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).