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Islanders at Hurricanes
NHL

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸6
Carolina Hurricanes
2
FinalTV BSSO, MSGSN2·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-2. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Bailey's goal at 16:26 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were NYI 32, CAR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 3.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (2 G), 2. Martin Necas (1 G), 3. Josh Bailey (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    B. Nelson2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    M. Necas1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    J. Bailey1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI19212311632
CARCAR07217011235

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(4)
    M. Barzal (8), S. Mayfield (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    16:29

2nd period

  1. CAR
    M. Necas(4)
    B. Skjei (3)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    8:57
  2. NYI
    M. Martin(2)
    C. Cizikas (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    14:29
  3. CAR
    B. Burns(1)
    J. Martinook (2), B. Pesce (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    15:35
  4. NYI
    J. Bailey(2)
    M. Barzal (9), A. Romanov (1)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +22 pts
    3-2
    16:26

3rd period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(1)
    A. Beauvillier (2), A. Lee (4)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    3:59
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(2)
    A. Beauvillier (3), R. Pulock (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +3 pts
    5-2
    11:06
  3. NYI
    Z. Parise(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.55
    6-2
    18:06

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·CAR 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:09CARJordan Martinook · Trippingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min

2nd

  • 17:20NYIZach Parise · Interferencedrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 17:57NYIAdam Pelech · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 17:55NYIMathew Barzal · Cross checkingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNYI goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Josh Bailey, 2nd 16:26 — NYI 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.35M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.20T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.15D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.14J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.13B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.13J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.13J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.12M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.12T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.12S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.11J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.10D. Coghlan · Missed · xG 0.09B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.09B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.08B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.07J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.07T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.06J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.05T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.04S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.03D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · Goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.01D. Coghlan · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01D. Coghlan · Missed · xG 0.01J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR2 G · 3.4 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsCAR
2.45 G
All situations
2 G3.4
1.85 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.10 G
Power play
0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI23%77%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.79 – 3.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsCAR
32
Shots on goal
35
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
29
Hits
22
28
Blocked shots
10
9
Giveaways
8
9
Takeaways
17

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24S. MayfieldD011010.01240—22:19
6R. PulockD011020.09340—21:28
28A. RomanovD011+310.01230—20:22
3A. PelechD000+220.23352—19:24
8N. DobsonD000+310.06140—18:48
13M. BarzalC022+230.151222516:46
12J. BaileyR101+220.08000—16:43
11Z. PariseL101010.55102—16:12
44J. PageauC000020.062106416:09
25S. AhoD000040.03100—15:48
26O. WahlstromR101+120.19100—15:11
29B. NelsonC202+130.230004415:10
21K. PalmieriC000030.251003315:06
18A. BeauvillierR022+120.13120—14:21
27A. LeeL011+100.010105013:39
53C. CizikasC011+110.062104413:24
15C. ClutterbuckR000+100.00400—11:44
17M. MartinL101+120.23410—11:26
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)35332.9433.40+1.4060:00

Season series

CAR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).