Oilers at Blackhawks 6-5 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

▸6

Chicago Blackhawks

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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Chicago Blackhawks 6-5. The lead changed hands 5 times. The Blackhawks led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leon Draisaitl's goal at 19:22 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 96%. Expected goals favored the Blackhawks, 3.7 to 2.9; shots on goal were EDM 38, CHI 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blackhawks win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 1.3 goals below expected; Alex Stalock stopped 32 of 38 (.842), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (3 G, 1 A), 2. Leon Draisaitl (1 G, 2 A), 3. Patrick Kane (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

★
C. McDavid3 G, 1 A
★★
L. Draisaitl1 G, 2 A
★★★
P. Kane1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	114	212	312	638
CHI	212	216	18	536

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

Z. Hyman(4)
C. McDavid (7), E. Kane (5)
snapxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
1-0
10:29
A. Athanasiou(2)
M. Domi (2)
backhandxG 0.27win prob +14 pts
1-1
13:20
R. Johnson(1)
C. Jones (2), C. Blackwell (2)
backhandxG 0.22win prob +14 pts
1-2
15:38

2nd period

C. McDavid(6)
E. Bouchard (3), B. Kulak (2)
wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
2-2
0:18
J. Toews(4)PPG
M. Domi (3), P. Kane (5)
deflectedxG 0.26win prob +13 pts
2-3
1:33
C. McDavid(7)PPG
L. Draisaitl (10), R. Nugent-Hopkins (5)
wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
3-3
8:28
M. Domi(4)PPG
T. Raddysh (3), P. Kane (6)
slapxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
3-4
16:46

3rd period

R. Nugent-Hopkins(5)PPG
L. Draisaitl (11), T. Barrie (3)
snapxG 0.19win prob +21 pts
4-4
0:24
C. McDavid(8)PPG
E. Bouchard (4), R. Nugent-Hopkins (6)
wristxG 0.11win prob +30 pts
5-4
10:16
P. Kane(2)
J. McCabe (1), C. Jones (3)
wristxG 0.29win prob +41 pts
5-5
16:49
L. Draisaitl(4)
E. Kane (6), K. Yamamoto (2)
wristxG 0.16win prob +47 pts
6-5
19:22

Penalties

22 PIM·

18 PIM

1st

7:51Dylan Holloway · Interferencedrawn by Sam Lafferty2 min
16:33Jarred Tinordi · Trippingdrawn by Jesse Puljujarvi2 min

2nd

0:26Jack Campbell · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
2:48Markus Niemelainen · Interferencedrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min
3:53Seth Jones · Slashingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
5:30Evander Kane · Cross checkingdrawn by Connor Murphy2 min
5:30Evander Kane · Cross checkingdrawn by Connor Murphy2 min
7:02Caleb Jones · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins2 min
7:27Philipp Kurashev · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
8:07Jake McCabe · Slashingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
8:07Tyson Barrie · Cross checkingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
8:57Dylan Holloway · Hookingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
11:43Darnell Nurse · Cross checkingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
15:53served by J. Puljujarvi · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
16:16Evander Kane · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
18:42Caleb Jones · Trippingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min

3rd

2:57Evan Bouchard · Holdingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
4:48Andreas Athanasiou · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jack Campbell2 min
8:48MacKenzie Entwistle · High stickingdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min
11:24Jonathan Toews · Slashingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CHI

Biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl, 3rd 19:22 — EDM 49% → 96%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

5 G · 3.7 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 2.9 xG · 53 att CHI

5 G · 3.7 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.96 G
All situations: 5 G3.7; 1.03 G
Even strength: 3 G1.9; 1.43 G
Power play: 2 G1.7; 0.50 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

39%61%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.94 – 3.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

38
Shots on goal: 36; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 3/7
Power play: 2/10; 22
Penalty minutes: 18; 14
Hits: 29; 7
Blocked shots: 7; 2
Giveaways: 13; 5
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
25D. NurseD	0	0	0	0	7	0.39	0	0	2	—	24:44
5C. CeciD	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	22:47
29L. DraisaitlC	1	2	3	0	3	0.58	0	0	0	52	22:07
97C. McDavidC	3	1	4	0	4	0.29	0	1	0	100	21:07
2E. BouchardD	0	2	2	0	2	0.09	0	0	2	—	18:53
18Z. HymanL	1	0	1	-1	4	0.44	0	0	0	—	18:36
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	1	2	3	-1	3	0.42	1	0	0	36	18:17
71R. McLeodC	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	0	0	60	18:04
22T. BarrieD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	1	1	2	—	17:10
91E. KaneL	0	2	2	+1	3	0.19	2	0	6	—	17:00
27B. KulakD	0	1	1	0	2	0.03	1	1	0	—	16:31
56K. YamamotoR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.06	1	1	0	—	16:13
13J. PuljujarviR	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	—	11:23
80M. NiemelainenD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	3	1	2	—	10:52
37W. FoegeleL	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	—	08:53
10D. RyanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	25	08:20
55D. HollowayL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	1	1	4	40	08:07
14D. ShoreC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	02:56

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Campbell(W)	36	31	5	.861	3.69	-1.31	60:00

Season series

EDM leads 3-0

Oct 276@5this game
Nov 305@4Final
Jan 283@7Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score