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Maple Leafs at Jets
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Winnipeg Jets
1
FinalTV SN, CBC·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-1. The Jets scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was David Kampf's goal at 14:34 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.8, WPG 2.7; shots on goal were TOR 28, WPG 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (2 G), 2. Ilya Samsonov (30 saves, .968), 3. Pierre-Luc Dubois (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    I. Samsonov30 saves, .968
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    P. Dubois1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1921415428
WPGWPG19010012131

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    P. Dubois(2)
    C. Perfetti (3), B. Wheeler (3)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:17
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(2)PPG
    W. Nylander (3), A. Matthews (3)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    9:56

2nd period

  1. TOR
    D. Kampf(2)
    W. Simmonds (1), K. Clifford (1)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    14:34
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(3)PPG
    A. Matthews (4), R. Sandin (3)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    18:56

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Bunting(2)EN
    M. Marner (4), A. Matthews (5)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    17:23

Penalties

TOR 15 PIM·WPG 15 PIM

1st

  • 7:05TORMichael Bunting · Interferencedrawn by Brenden Dillon2 min
  • 8:06WPGJosh Morrissey · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 11:01TORKyle Clifford · Trippingdrawn by Nate Schmidt2 min
  • 16:21WPGJosh Morrissey · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

2nd

  • 16:08WPGJosh Morrissey · Interferencedrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 16:08TORMorgan Rielly · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min
  • 16:08WPGJosh Morrissey · Fightingdrawn by Morgan Rielly5 min
  • 16:08TORMorgan Rielly · Fightingdrawn by Josh Morrissey5 min
  • 18:14WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min
  • 18:14TORMichael Bunting · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
  • 18:14WPGBrenden Dillon · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 3:05TORWayne Simmonds · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalTOR goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: David Kampf, 2nd 14:34 — TOR 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.21P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.21N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.20B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.19M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.18A. Jonsson-Fjallby · On goal · xG 0.18M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.15K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.14M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.13P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.11M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.10P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.10K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.06B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.06L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.04B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.04P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.04K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.04N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.03B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02S. Maenalanen · Missed · xG 0.02P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.02K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG1 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWPG
2.83 G
All situations
1 G2.7
1.91 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
0.62 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR46%54%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWPG
28
Shots on goal
31
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/3
Power play
0/3
15
Penalty minutes
15
17
Hits
29
12
Blocked shots
18
12
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000+100.00020—22:27
3J. HollD000-120.03110—21:19
38R. SandinD011-120.05210—20:31
44M. RiellyD000+110.03117—19:47
34A. MatthewsC033+140.872004419:27
16M. MarnerR011+100.06000—19:17
88W. NylanderR011020.22000—17:21
91J. TavaresC202040.561007317:02
55M. GiordanoD000+110.03050—17:02
64D. KampfC101+130.122004017:01
89N. RobertsonL000020.02000—15:46
15A. KerfootC000-110.020003315:23
98V. MeteD000+100.00010—15:12
58M. BuntingL101+130.44104—14:48
19C. JarnkrokC000-110.051005011:41
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000-100.00100—10:58
24W. SimmondsR011+100.12312—10:10
43K. CliffordL011+120.13202—09:06
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)31301.9682.74+1.7459:42

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).