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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸10
Detroit Red Wings
7
FinalTV BSDET, SN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 10-7. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 7-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ondrej Kase's goal at 10:33 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 74% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.0 to 1.7; shots on goal were TOR 39, DET 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 3.6 goals below expected; Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 19 of 25 (.760), 3.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (4 G, 2 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 3 A), 3. Lucas Raymond (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner4 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    L. Raymond2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR3154123121039
DETDET18110515733

Scoring

17 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(20)
    J. Holl (8), O. Kase (12)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:52
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(18)
    J. Holl (9), M. Marner (32)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    6:18
  3. DET
    L. Raymond(14)
    M. Staal (8), F. Hronek (21)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    10:33
  4. TOR
    D. Kampf(8)
    I. Mikheyev (4), A. Kerfoot (28)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    11:06

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(18)
    A. Matthews (29), M. Bunting (19)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    4-1
    0:33
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(19)
    A. Matthews (30), M. Bunting (20)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +6 pts
    5-1
    4:13
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(20)
    M. Bunting (21), A. Matthews (31)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +2 pts
    6-1
    9:19
  4. DET
    S. Gagner(6)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +1 pts
    6-2
    13:47
  5. TOR
    A. Matthews(37)
    T. Brodie (10), M. Marner (33)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +1 pts
    7-2
    18:38

3rd period

  1. DET
    F. Hronek(5)
    M. Staal (9), L. Raymond (27)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +1 pts
    7-3
    0:35
  2. DET
    C. Rowney(3)
    F. Hronek (22), A. Erne (8)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +2 pts
    7-4
    2:09
  3. DET
    J. Veleno(5)
    F. Hronek (23), D. DeKeyser (5)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +6 pts
    7-5
    4:42
  4. DET
    M. Rasmussen(7)
    M. Seider (33), J. Veleno (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    7-6
    5:21
  5. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(9)
    A. Kerfoot (29), I. Lyubushkin (10)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
    8-6
    7:04
  6. DET
    L. Raymond(15)
    D. Larkin (29), M. Seider (34)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    8-7
    7:45
  7. TOR
    O. Kase(11)SHG
    D. Kampf (12), J. Holl (10)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +19 pts
    9-7
    10:33
  8. TOR
    M. Marner(21)
    M. Bunting (22)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +1 pts
    10-7
    15:41

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·DET 0 PIM

1st

  • 14:57TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Filip Zadina2 min

2nd

  • 6:28TORNick Robertson · Boardingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min

3rd

  • 10:23TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Carter Rowney2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Ondrej Kase, 3rd 10:33 — TOR 74% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.24A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.20A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.09T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.08L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.08T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.08S. Gagner · Goal · xG 0.07F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.06F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.06D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.05C. Rowney · Goal · xG 0.05T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.05C. Rowney · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.05F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.04M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.04P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.04M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.03F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.03A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.03F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · Goal · xG 0.01M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01J. Veleno · Goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.01G. Lindstrom · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.01F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.01F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.00D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.00N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.00F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.00A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.00
DET7 G · 1.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
3.010 G
All situations
7 G1.7
2.89 G
Even strength
7 G1.4
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR73%27%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 1.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
39
Shots on goal
33
59%
Faceoffs
41%
0/0
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
0
9
Hits
14
7
Blocked shots
16
3
Giveaways
4
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD011+400.00000—22:34
3J. HollD033+300.04100—20:36
44M. RiellyD000-240.07000—20:28
37T. LiljegrenD000-220.08110—19:22
38R. SandinD000+200.00200—19:18
65I. MikheyevR112030.42000—18:37
46I. LyubushkinD011+110.10400—17:42
15A. KerfootC022010.050203317:37
25O. KaseR112+150.43010—17:03
64D. KampfC112010.070107517:02
91J. TavaresC000030.350025216:03
88W. NylanderR101020.03010—16:01
16M. MarnerR426+360.65002—15:07
34A. MatthewsC134+340.260106714:33
58M. BuntingL145+340.40000—13:39
19J. SpezzaC000000.000004010:11
89N. RobertsonL000-130.09102—09:19
24W. SimmondsR000-100.00000—08:48
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell25205.8001.39-3.6144:42
35P. Mrazek(W)862.7500.36-1.6415:18

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).