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Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames

FinalTV CBC, SN·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Vancouver Canucks 6-3. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brett Ritchie's goal at 5:50 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 4.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were VAN 31, CGY 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Thatcher Demko stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 2.4 goals below expected; Dan Vladar stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dillon Dube (2 G), 2. Elias Lindholm (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nikita Zadorov (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    D. Dube2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    E. Lindholm1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    N. Zadorov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
VANVAN07113211331
CGYCGY0921646631

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. CGY
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:44
  2. CGY
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    3:00
  3. VAN
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    18:46

3rd period

  1. VAN
    T. Myers (17), J. Miller (65)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +27 pts
    2-2
    5:36
  2. CGY
    C. Tanev (21), T. Lewis (10)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    5:50
  3. CGY
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    2-4
    13:33
  4. CGY
    wristxG 0.01win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    13:45
  5. VAN
    Q. Hughes (56), J. Miller (66)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +1 pts
    3-5
    17:35
  6. CGY
    M. Tkachuk (61), C. Tanev (22)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    18:21

Penalties

VAN 6 PIM·CGY 4 PIM

2nd

  • 2:07VANWilliam Lockwood · High stickingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
  • 20:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 20:00VANOliver Ekman-Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 7:07CGYMikael Backlund · Cross checkingdrawn by Alex Chiasson2 min
  • 9:58VANBrad Richardson · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalVAN goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Brett Ritchie, 3rd 5:50 — CGY 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.76M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.53J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.51T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.24E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.18M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.16M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.12T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.12J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.08D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.08B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.07B. Ritchie · Goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.06N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.06D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.05R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.05E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.05D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.05R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.04T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.04E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.02T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.01
CGY6 G · 4.4 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

VANvsCGY
1.83 G
All situations
5 G4.4
1.33 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
VAN35%65%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

VANvsCGY
31
Shots on goal
31
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/1
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
25
15
Blocked shots
6
7
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Vancouver Canucks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD112030.19010—27:06
9J. MillerC033+150.513105021:59
6B. BoeserR000-200.000104021:37
40E. PetterssonC101-220.09110021:25
23O. Ekman-LarssonD000-110.01132—19:34
8C. GarlandR101+150.43000—19:21
2L. SchennD000-120.04200—18:25
24T. DermottD000020.12110—17:05
77B. HuntD000000.01100—16:34
57T. MyersD011-200.03020—16:25
92V. PodkolzinR011-100.00110—15:59
39A. ChiassonR000+230.10000—15:47
15M. HighmoreC000030.04020013:37
18J. DickinsonC000010.10110013:30
91J. LammikkoC000010.021004013:23
13B. RichardsonR000-110.061126710:20
51S. DriesC000-210.0400010008:23
58W. LockwoodR000-210.04302—08:12
Vancouver Canucks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Demko(L)30255.8332.64-2.3656:41

Season series

CGY leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).