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Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV ALT, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the San Jose Sharks 5-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darren Helm's goal at 14:14 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 61% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.8 to 2.9; shots on goal were COL 29, SJS 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 25 of 28 (.893); Zach Sawchenko stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A), 2. Ryan Murray, 3. Erik Karlsson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    R. Murray
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    E. Karlsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21021019529
SJSSJS07110211328

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(23)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    10:18
  2. COL
    wristxG 0.10win prob +11 pts
    2-0
    14:14

2nd period

  1. COL
    snapxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    0:34
  2. COL
    wristxG 0.21win prob +4 pts
    4-0
    15:29
  3. SJS
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +3 pts
    4-1
    19:19

3rd period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.05win prob +3 pts
    4-2
    13:02
  2. SJS
    snapxG 0.02win prob +6 pts
    4-3
    18:35
  3. COL
    wristxG 0.89win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    19:45

Penalties

COL 17 PIM·SJS 9 PIM

1st

  • 6:20COLJosh Manson · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Barabanov2 min
  • 9:12SJSJeffrey Viel · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Murray2 min
  • 11:41COLKurtis MacDermid · Fightingdrawn by Jake Middleton5 min
  • 11:41SJSJake Middleton · Fightingdrawn by Kurtis MacDermid5 min
  • 19:49COLJ.T. Compher · Roughingdrawn by Marc-Edouard Vlasic2 min
  • 19:49SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic · Roughingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

2nd

  • 4:33COLNathan MacKinnon · Hookingdrawn by Logan Couture2 min
  • 11:13COLDevon Toews · Hookingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min
  • 15:39COLJack Johnson · Holdingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min

3rd

  • 3:55COLAndre Burakovsky · Slashingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalCOL goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Darren Helm, 1st 14:14 — COL 61% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.30A. Barabanov · Missed · xG 0.17N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.17L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.15T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.15J. Dahlen · Missed · xG 0.14T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.14T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.13R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.13R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.13T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.10T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.10J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reedy · Missed · xG 0.09J. Viel · Goal · xG 0.08M. Nieto · Missed · xG 0.08T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.08L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reedy · Missed · xG 0.07T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.06T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.06R. Balcers · Goal · xG 0.05L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.04R. Balcers · Missed · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barabanov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gadjovich · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.03J. Megna · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barabanov · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.02J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.01M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS3 G · 2.9 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSJS
3.84 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.73 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.11 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.50 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL39%61%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSJS
29
Shots on goal
28
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/1
Power play
0/5
17
Penalty minutes
9
11
Hits
20
11
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
8
11
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123+130.30110—27:34
7D. ToewsD011+130.15002—27:31
13V. NichushkinR202041.30110—21:10
29N. MacKinnonC033+200.000124018:43
96M. RantanenR022+100.63000—17:47
28R. MurrayD000+110.00230—17:27
42J. MansonD000000.00202—16:30
37J. CompherL000020.270024316:16
3J. JohnsonD000000.02102—15:15
78N. SturmC000020.091007515:07
6E. JohnsonD000-110.00030—15:02
25L. O'ConnorR000020.17000—14:49
91N. KadriC101-230.240104614:29
43D. HelmC101+120.380105712:55
95A. BurakovskyL011010.04002—12:42
18A. NewhookC000040.18000012:40
16N. Aube-KubelR000010.01100—07:06
56K. MacDermidL000000.00205—04:56
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(W)28253.8932.91-0.0960:00

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).