Sabres at Flames 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres

▸1

Calgary Flames

Final/OTTV MSG-B, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Calgary Flames 1-0 in overtime, Tage Thompson scoring at 3:07. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 3:07 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.5, CGY 2.3; shots on goal were BUF 34, CGY 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dustin Tokarski (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Jacob Markstrom (33 saves, .971), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

★
D. Tokarski24 saves, 1.000
★★
J. Markstrom33 saves, .971
★★★
T. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	07	010	012	15	134
CGY	06	08	010	00	024

Scoring

1 goal

Overtime

T. Thompson(25)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.08win prob +51 pts
1-0
3:07

Penalties

4 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

0:30Kyle Okposo · Hookingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

2nd

7:57Noah Hanifin · Hookingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
15:44Chris Tanev · Slashingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min

3rd

4:42Mikael Backlund · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
6:15Tyler Toffoli · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
6:15Dylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, OT 3:07 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att CGY

0 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.51 G
All situations: 0 G2.3; 2.31 G
Even strength: 0 G2.2; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

54%46%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 24; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/3
Power play: 0/1; 4
Penalty minutes: 8; 17
Hits: 23; 8
Blocked shots: 9; 11
Giveaways: 17; 8
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Buffalo Sabres skaters
Skater	G	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
10H. JokiharjuD	0	0	+1	1	0.06	1	1	0	—	24:33
26R. DahlinD	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	0	0	—	23:44
78J. BrysonD	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	21:36
23M. SamuelssonD	0	0	0	1	0.07	4	0	0	—	20:12
37C. MittelstadtC	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	38	19:03
72T. ThompsonC	1	1	+1	5	0.56	0	1	0	45	18:15
21K. OkposoR	0	0	0	4	0.20	1	1	2	100	17:20
89A. TuchR	0	0	0	5	0.18	0	0	0	—	16:40
71V. OlofssonL	0	0	0	3	0.11	0	1	0	—	16:37
53J. SkinnerL	0	0	0	4	0.44	1	0	0	25	16:33
20C. EakinC	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	58	14:44
19P. KrebsC	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	0	14:37
28Z. GirgensonsC	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	0	14:14
74R. AsplundC	0	0	0	4	0.19	0	0	0	0	14:07
29V. HinostrozaC	0	0	0	1	0.38	1	0	0	0	13:57
8R. HaggD	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	2	0	—	13:54
13M. PysykD	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:51
24D. CozensC	0	0	+1	2	0.10	1	0	2	67	13:38

Buffalo Sabres goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31D. Tokarski(W)	24	24	0	1.000	2.29	+2.29	62:53

Season series

Tied 1-1

Nov 185@0Final
Mar 181@0OTthis game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames

Overtime

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score