Stars at Predators 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

Nashville Predators

▸2

FinalTV BSSW, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 2-1. The Stars scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 18:38 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were DAL 23, NSH 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (1 G), 2. Ryan Johansen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jake Oettinger (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

★
R. Josi1 G
★★
R. Johansen1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. Oettinger29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	05	08	110	123
NSH	010	014	27	231

Scoring

3 goals

3rd period

J. Klingberg(2)
E. Lindell (15), D. Gurianov (16)
wristxG 0.02win prob +24 pts
1-0
0:32
R. Johansen(14)
A. Carrier (19), M. Duchene (24)
backhandxG 0.21win prob +34 pts
1-1
13:08
R. Josi(15)
D. Fabbro (16), R. Johansen (27)
slapxG 0.01win prob +43 pts
1-2
18:38

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

18:27Luke Kunin · Cross checkingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

2nd

4:20Radek Faksa · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
8:33John Klingberg · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min

3rd

11:44Jamie Benn · Boardingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
11:44Mattias Ekholm · Roughingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NSH

100%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, 3rd 18:38 — NSH 52% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.5 xG · 49 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.9 xG · 33 att NSH

2 G · 2.5 xG · 49 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.91 G
All situations: 2 G2.5; 1.41 G
Even strength: 2 G2.2; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

39%61%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.90 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 31; 58%
Faceoffs: 42%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 30
Hits: 33; 16
Blocked shots: 9; 6
Giveaways: 14; 5
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	28:51
2J. HakanpääD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.02	9	3	0	—	25:32
3J. KlingbergD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.13	1	2	2	—	23:36
23E. LindellD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	2	4	0	—	22:56
21J. RobertsonL	0	0	0	0	3	0.18	0	0	0	—	21:08
24R. HintzC	0	0	0	0	4	0.29	1	1	0	45	19:01
91T. SeguinC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.18	1	0	0	100	17:51
16J. PavelskiC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	2	1	0	50	17:29
14J. BennL	0	0	0	+1	5	0.38	2	1	2	71	15:32
18M. RafflL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	0	0	0	100	14:20
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.13	2	0	2	46	13:41
11L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	-2	0	0.02	4	1	0	100	13:40
47A. RadulovR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	11:47
34D. GurianovR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	2	0	0	—	11:09
25J. KivirantaL	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	1	0	—	10:20
44J. HanleyD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	09:44
27R. TufteL	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	0	0	0	—	09:25
55T. HarleyD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	09:21

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(L)	31	29	2	.935	2.51	+0.51	58:37

Season series

NSH leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score