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Maple Leafs at Capitals
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Washington Capitals
3
FinalTV NBCSWA, SN·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Washington Capitals 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Sandin's goal at 16:37 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 28, WSH 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.6 goals below expected; Vitek Vanecek stopped 16 of 17 (.941). Three stars: 1. Justin Holl (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 A), 3. Tom Wilson (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Holl1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    T. Wilson2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR3100929528
WSHWSH112111110333

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Bunting(19)
    M. Marner (34), R. Sandin (11)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:35
  2. WSH
    C. Sheary(12)
    N. Backstrom (12), J. Carlson (31)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:23
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(21)
    J. Tavares (32), A. Kerfoot (30)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    18:49
  4. TOR
    J. Holl(2)
    M. Marner (35), M. Rielly (38)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    19:58

2nd period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(16)PPG
    A. Ovechkin (32), J. Carlson (32)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    10:11

3rd period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(17)SHG
    M. Fehérváry (7), J. Carlson (33)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    1:44
  2. TOR
    R. Sandin(3)
    J. Holl (11), J. Tavares (33)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +41 pts
    4-3
    16:37
  3. TOR
    P. Engvall(9)EN
    I. Mikheyev (5)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    18:59

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·WSH 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:32WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Trippingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min

2nd

  • 1:44TORMichael Bunting · Holdingdrawn by Nic Dowd2 min
  • 8:34TORPierre Engvall · Trippingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 13:36WSHLars Eller · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 15:58TORMichael Bunting · Trippingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min

3rd

  • 0:49WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Hookingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
  • 5:41WSHLars Eller · Slashingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 15:02WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk · Roughingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min
  • 15:02TORWayne Simmonds · Roughingdrawn by Trevor van Riemsdyk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalTOR goalFinal: WSH 0%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Sandin, 3rd 16:37 — TOR 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.19N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.15T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.15T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.14A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.13A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.10N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.10T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.09T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.09T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.09T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.08T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.07T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.07D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.07G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.06C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.06T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.05G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05J. Snively · Missed · xG 0.05G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.04L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.04D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.03T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.03E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.03M. Fehérváry · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Fehérváry · On goal · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.01C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.00N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.00J. Snively · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH3 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWSH
3.54 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.14 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR52%48%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWSH
28
Shots on goal
33
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/4
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
10
23
Hits
39
13
Blocked shots
16
4
Giveaways
11
9
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011+230.05000—24:35
78T. BrodieD000+110.02010—21:31
16M. MarnerR022+110.15230—21:29
3J. HollD112+230.29020—20:46
34A. MatthewsC000+200.205105019:29
65I. MikheyevR011+160.47100—18:31
58M. BuntingL101+220.20314—18:23
91J. TavaresC022010.291103817:36
88W. NylanderR101-120.41000—17:08
37T. LiljegrenD000+100.00110—15:59
64D. KampfC000+120.150006415:27
15A. KerfootC011010.09020015:20
38R. SandinD112020.11100—15:05
46I. LyubushkinD000+100.00410—14:21
47P. EngvallL101+130.97202—11:44
24W. SimmondsR000010.01302—10:20
19J. SpezzaC000000.080007109:11
89N. RobertsonL000000.00000—05:28
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Mrazek(W)33303.9092.45-0.5560:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).