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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Ottawa Senators
1
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 3-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Jankowski's goal at 10:03 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 32, OTT 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Michael Houser stopped 43 of 44 (.977), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 29 of 31 (.935). Three stars: 1. Michael Houser (43 saves, .977), 2. Thomas Chabot (1 A), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    M. Houser43 saves, .977
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF19012211332
OTTOTT015119010144

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(9)
    A. Tuch (5), W. Butcher (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:07

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(11)PPG
    T. Stützle (12), T. Chabot (18)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    7:44

3rd period

  1. BUF
    M. Jankowski(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.20win prob +33 pts
    2-1
    10:03
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(2)EN
    D. Cozens (9), J. Skinner (10)
    wristxG 0.72win prob +3 pts
    3-1
    19:20

Penalties

BUF 25 PIM·OTT 9 PIM

1st

  • 14:21OTTBrady Tkachuk · Fightingdrawn by John Hayden5 min
  • 14:21BUFJohn Hayden · Instigatordrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 14:21BUFJohn Hayden · Fightingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk5 min
  • 14:21BUFJohn Hayden · Misconduct10 min
  • 17:27OTTAustin Watson · Interferencedrawn by Brett Murray2 min
  • 18:13BUFRasmus Dahlin · Slashingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min

2nd

  • 2:35OTTTim Stützle · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 6:33BUFKyle Okposo · Hookingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min
  • 9:14BUFMark Jankowski · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 16:44BUFPeyton Krebs · Hookingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Mark Jankowski, 3rd 10:03 — BUF 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.24T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.22B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.18D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.15A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.11J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.10A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.08A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.07D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.07D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.07A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.06T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.05A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.05A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.05T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.05A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.04A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.04C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.03J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.03N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.02J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.02J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.02J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT1 G · 2.8 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
2.52 G
All situations
1 G2.8
1.42 G
Even strength
0 G2.0
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF33%67%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
32
Shots on goal
44
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/2
Power play
1/5
25
Penalty minutes
9
10
Hits
22
15
Blocked shots
17
5
Giveaways
6
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000+210.01130—22:01
13M. PysykD000+110.04020—20:47
89A. TuchR112+230.8521010020:39
10H. JokiharjuD000+120.03200—19:53
26R. DahlinD000+110.03222—19:32
8R. HaggD000+110.01130—19:11
4W. ButcherD011010.06000—16:25
24D. CozensC112+240.170003816:22
17M. JankowskiL101+110.200125815:49
53J. SkinnerL011+240.130006715:34
21K. OkposoR000+140.300025014:38
19P. KrebsC000020.080024414:29
71V. OlofssonL000+130.31000—14:10
96A. BjorkL000020.23010—13:39
20C. EakinC000000.000205812:35
74R. AsplundC000010.020005012:27
15J. HaydenC000000.001017011:48
57B. MurrayL000010.05100—10:56
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32M. Houser(W)44431.9772.80+1.8060:00

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).