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Senators at Jets
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Winnipeg Jets
2
FinalTV TSN3, TSN5·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-2. The Jets scored first; the Senators answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Ennis's goal at 12:25 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were OTT 33, WPG 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 22 of 24 (.917); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Ennis (1 G), 2. Tim Stützle (2 A), 3. Brady Tkachuk (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Ennis1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT18011414533
WPGWPG1110716224

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    J. Morrissey(10)
    M. Scheifele (34), B. Wheeler (40)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:38
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(21)
    A. Zub (15), J. Norris (11)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:03

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Ennis(8)
    M. Joseph (11), C. Tierney (11)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +36 pts
    2-1
    12:25
  2. OTT
    C. White(2)PPG
    T. Stützle (24), E. Brannstrom (7)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    3-1
    14:41
  3. OTT
    C. Brown(10)
    T. Stützle (25), M. Del Zotto (5)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    15:40
  4. WPG
    K. Connor(40)
    P. Dubois (25), M. Scheifele (35)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    4-2
    17:06
  5. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(22)EN
    M. Del Zotto (6), A. Watson (3)
    snapxG 0.70
    5-2
    18:44

Penalties

OTT 0 PIM·WPG 2 PIM

3rd

  • 13:16WPGBrenden Dillon · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalOTT goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Tyler Ennis, 3rd 12:25 — OTT 48% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.27P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.22P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.17K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.16Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.09N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.09E. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.08P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.07B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.06P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.05D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.03P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · Goal · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG2 G · 1.9 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsWPG
3.14 G
All situations
2 G1.9
2.23 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT61%39%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 1.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsWPG
33
Shots on goal
24
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
28
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
16
9
Giveaways
7
11
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2A. ZubD011+130.13120—23:38
26E. BrannstromD011+150.09000—21:17
5N. HoldenD000-100.06150—19:39
15M. Del ZottoD022+310.03120—19:19
7B. TkachukL202+130.995105019:04
18T. StützleC022-120.340004418:57
23T. HamonicD000+130.09330—18:39
28C. BrownR101-120.341005018:02
9J. NorrisC011+120.030203517:58
36C. WhiteC101+140.471005017:01
21M. JosephR011+100.094005016:46
22N. ZaitsevD000-110.03310—16:23
10A. FormentonL000000.07000—16:16
71C. TierneyC011+210.032107514:47
17A. GaudetteR000030.172006712:24
63T. EnnisR101+120.17200—10:44
16A. WatsonL011+110.01200—10:03
27D. GambrellC000000.000103809:03
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(W)24222.9171.88-0.1260:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).