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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
4
Nashville Predators
▸5
Final/OTTV BSSO, ALT2·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-4 in overtime, Matt Duchene scoring at 3:01. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 3:01 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.7 to 3.4; shots on goal were COL 44, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.4 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 40 of 44 (.909), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (2 G), 2. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A), 3. Luke Kunin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Duchene2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    L. Kunin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL0921421605444
NSHNSH212191912532

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    T. Jeannot(12)
    M. Luff (2), C. Sissons (12)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:32
  2. NSH
    L. Kunin(6)
    R. Josi (23)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    19:04

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. Aube-Kubel(5)
    N. Kadri (34), C. Makar (17)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    8:15
  2. COL
    A. Burakovsky(13)
    N. Aube-Kubel (8), S. Girard (15)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    11:48
  3. NSH
    L. Kunin(7)
    N. Cousins (6)
    deflectedxG 0.16win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    17:25

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(6)PPG
    C. Makar (18), N. Kadri (35)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +27 pts
    3-3
    5:21
  2. NSH
    M. Duchene(15)PPG
    A. Carrier (11), R. Josi (24)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +19 pts
    3-4
    10:00
  3. COL
    C. Makar(16)
    V. Nichushkin (7), S. Girard (16)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +35 pts
    4-4
    13:19

Overtime

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(16)PPG
    R. Josi (25), M. Granlund (28)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    3:01

Penalties

COL 12 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:51NSHDante Fabbro · Interferencedrawn by Alex Newhook2 min
  • 8:53NSHEeli Tolvanen · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:52COLAlex Newhook · Trippingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

3rd

  • 4:13NSHRyan Johansen · Trippingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 4:13COLJack Johnson · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 4:13NSHRyan Johansen · Roughingdrawn by Jack Johnson2 min
  • 8:36COLMikko Rantanen · High sticking double minordrawn by Ryan Johansen4 min
  • 18:07COLserved by M. Maltsev · Too many men on the ice2 min

OT

  • 2:32COLserved by N. Aube-Kubel · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, OT 3:01 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.20M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.18M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.18M. Luff · Missed · xG 0.17T. Jeannot · Goal · xG 0.16L. Kunin · Goal · xG 0.16L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.16R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.16E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.14N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.14L. Kunin · Goal · xG 0.11E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.11E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.10L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Luff · On goal · xG 0.08A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.07A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.06L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.06M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.06N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.05P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.04N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.04R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.04M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.04L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.04E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.02L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.01R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.7 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
3.44 G
All situations
5 G3.7
2.33 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.91 G
Power play
2 G1.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL46%54%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.37 – 3.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
44
Shots on goal
32
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/3
Power play
2/5
12
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
19
12
Blocked shots
18
12
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123+250.39010—25:46
7D. ToewsD000+120.11020—25:36
13V. NichushkinR011+110.06200—22:26
91N. KadriC022+150.450006022:18
49S. GirardD022000.00020—21:56
96M. RantanenR000010.16104—21:32
29N. MacKinnonC101+160.650104020:34
6E. JohnsonD000-130.04120—18:38
25L. O'ConnorR000-120.19000—16:02
37J. CompherL000-230.141305715:13
3J. JohnsonD000-120.09102—15:07
16N. Aube-KubelR112+120.35200—14:44
95A. BurakovskyL101+340.18100—14:09
28R. MurrayD000-110.01010—13:33
17T. JostC000-120.121005012:45
18A. NewhookC000-120.190025011:37
11M. MaltsevL000-110.0610010006:08
56K. MacDermidL000-120.20300—04:18
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(O)32275.8443.65-1.3563:01

Season series

NSH leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).