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Senators at Stars
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Dallas Stars
1
FinalTV BSSW+, TSN5·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Dallas Stars 4-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 7:55 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.9 to 1.9; shots on goal were OTT 24, DAL 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 38 of 39 (.974), 2.9 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Gustavsson (38 saves, .974), 2. Josh Norris (2 G), 3. Thomas Chabot.

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    F. Gustavsson38 saves, .974
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Norris2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT2151217424
DALDAL013111015139

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(4)PPG
    D. Batherson (3), T. Stützle (3)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    5:49
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(1)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    7:55

2nd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(5)
    D. Batherson (4), A. Zub (4)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    7:41
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(2)PPG
    A. Radulov (2), J. Robertson (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    10:38

3rd period

  1. OTT
    C. Brown(1)
    V. Mete (2), T. Stützle (4)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +7 pts
    4-1
    3:11

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:34DALAndrej Sekera · Cross checkingdrawn by Dylan Gambrell2 min

2nd

  • 10:03OTTNikita Zaitsev · Hookingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 14:15OTTNick Holden · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Radulov2 min
  • 19:11DALJoel Kiviranta · Trippingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

3rd

  • 5:07DALJamie Benn · Cross checkingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalOTT goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, 1st 7:55 — OTT 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.33R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.19J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.18J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.17R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.16R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.15J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.13R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.12L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.12T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.11E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.10T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.09R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.09M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.09J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.08L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.08D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.06J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.06E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.05L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.05A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.04J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Gurianov · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Raffl · Missed · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.03A. Sekera · Missed · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.02T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL1 G · 3.9 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDAL
1.94 G
All situations
1 G3.9
1.53 G
Even strength
0 G3.1
0.31 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT19%81%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.86 – 3.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDAL
24
Shots on goal
39
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
33
15
Blocked shots
13
8
Giveaways
20
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000+210.21010—25:44
2A. ZubD011+210.03040—24:36
28C. BrownR101+130.14000—20:23
5N. HoldenD000000.00002—19:56
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00212—19:23
19D. BathersonR022+230.05200—18:22
21N. PaulL000+110.060202918:08
9J. NorrisC202+220.382004417:40
18T. StützleC022+110.08210017:38
7B. TkachukL101+220.242103316:31
10A. FormentonL000040.19200—15:17
3J. BrownD000+110.01110—15:04
63T. EnnisR000020.13110—13:43
71C. TierneyC000020.151103313:05
98V. MeteD011+100.02010—11:07
13Z. SanfordL000000.06000—10:22
20L. ShawR000010.040004310:17
27D. GambrellC000000.081107810:09
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)39381.9743.90+2.9060:00

Season series

OTT leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).