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St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV FS-MW, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the San Jose Sharks 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan O'Reilly's goal at 4:22 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 54% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Sharks, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were STL 21, SJS 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Ville Husso stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Devan Dubnyk stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 3 A), 2. David Perron (1 G, 3 A), 3. Vince Dunn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    D. Perron1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    V. Dunn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL250838521
SJSSJS111110010231

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    B. Burns (11), R. Donato (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:23
  2. STL
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    3:32
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    6:45

2nd period

  1. SJS
    snapxG 0.16win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    8:10

3rd period

  1. STL
    V. Dunn (7), D. Perron (20)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    4:22
  2. STL
    T. Krug (15), D. Perron (21)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    4-2
    15:51
  3. STL
    D. Perron(12)EN
    wristxG 0.58
    5-2
    18:01

Penalties

STL 2 PIM·SJS 6 PIM

1st

  • 14:51STLKyle Clifford · Boardingdrawn by Ryan Donato2 min

2nd

  • 8:30SJSDevan Dubnyk · Delaying game2 min
  • 12:06SJSKevin Labanc · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

3rd

  • 4:10SJSserved by P. Marleau · Delaying game bench face off violation2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalSTL goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly, 3rd 4:22 — STL 54% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.27B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.22T. Hertl · Missed · xG 0.19E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.19T. Hertl · Goal · xG 0.16A. Suomela · On goal · xG 0.16R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.15B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.13D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.12K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.12R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.11L. Couture · Missed · xG 0.09K. Labanc · Missed · xG 0.08K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.07A. Suomela · On goal · xG 0.07D. Gambrell · Goal · xG 0.07J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.07R. Donato · Missed · xG 0.07K. Labanc · Missed · xG 0.07E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.06T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.06L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.06T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.05A. Suomela · On goal · xG 0.04E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.04R. Donato · Missed · xG 0.04E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Knyzhov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.02L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.02L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sorensen · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Knyzhov · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.01A. Suomela · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS2 G · 3.1 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsSJS
2.84 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.83 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL35%65%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsSJS
21
Shots on goal
31
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
31
Hits
28
15
Blocked shots
9
7
Giveaways
4
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72J. FaulkD000+120.18240—25:26
47T. KrugD011010.02220—22:42
29V. DunnD112+220.04210—21:21
6M. ScandellaD000+300.00100—20:10
17J. SchwartzL011030.16100—18:50
25J. KyrouR213+320.38010—18:36
10B. SchennC000-100.071003818:29
90R. O'ReillyC134+420.050005018:24
57D. PerronL134+431.04020—17:17
91V. TarasenkoR000-120.38020—16:40
46J. WalmanD000-110.04210—14:23
41R. BortuzzoD000-100.00310—13:43
61J. de la RoseL000000.002002713:37
26N. WalkerL000010.19400—12:57
13K. CliffordL000000.0260210012:55
68M. HoffmanC000-110.07010011:23
54D. JoshuaC000-100.001005711:03
9S. BlaisL000-110.14400—10:04
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35V. Husso(W)31292.9353.12+1.1260:00

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).