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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV NBCSN, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 6-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 6-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andre Burakovsky's goal at 11:51 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.1 to 3.5; shots on goal were DAL 34, COL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Michael Hutchinson stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Andre Burakovsky (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Denis Gurianov (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Burakovsky2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    D. Gurianov3 A

Line score

Final
Goals by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0213
COLCOL5106

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    P. Bellemare(2)
    L. O'Connor (1), M. Nieto (2)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:37
  2. COL
    A. Burakovsky(5)
    M. Rantanen (12), C. Makar (11)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    11:51
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(8)
    J. Compher (4), R. Graves (2)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    12:32
  4. COL
    N. Kadri(8)
    V. Nichushkin (1), G. Landeskog (11)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +5 pts
    0-4
    13:43
  5. COL
    M. Rantanen(6)
    S. Girard (8), A. Burakovsky (8)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    0-5
    14:27

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(8)
    M. Janmark (4), D. Gurianov (3)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    7:50
  2. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(4)PPG
    D. Gurianov (4), R. Hintz (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    17:31
  3. COL
    A. Burakovsky(6)
    N. MacKinnon (15)
    slapxG 0.25win prob +2 pts
    2-6
    18:04

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(5)PPG
    D. Gurianov (5), M. Heiskanen (14)
    backhandxG 0.23
    3-6
    14:12

Penalties

DAL 38 PIM·COL 18 PIM

1st

  • 7:20DALAlexander Radulov · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Graves2 min
  • 15:13DALRadek Faksa · Roughingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 15:13COLTyson Jost · Roughingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min
  • 19:36DALCorey Perry · High stickingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 20:00DALMattias Janmark · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Graves2 min

2nd

  • 2:19COLConor Timmins · High stickingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min
  • 8:32DALAnton Khudobin · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 12:31DALCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 13:31COLNazem Kadri · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 13:31COLNazem Kadri · Slashingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 13:31DALJoe Pavelski · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 17:02COLSamuel Girard · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 18:04DALBlake Comeau · Roughingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

3rd

  • 4:03COLRyan Graves · Trippingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 5:39COLConor Timmins · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:16DALBlake Comeau · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:07COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare · Cross checkingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 12:07DALRoope Hintz · Slashingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min
  • 12:31DALJoe Pavelski · Misconduct10 min
  • 13:31COLIan Cole · Holdingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Andre Burakovsky, 1st 11:51 — COL 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.35A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.25C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.20C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.20P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.18A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.17P. Bellemare · Goal · xG 0.15V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.15P. Bellemare · Missed · xG 0.14N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.14G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.11V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.06V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.02P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.02J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 4.1 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
3.53 G
All situations
6 G4.1
1.71 G
Even strength
6 G2.2
1.62 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL45%55%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.41 – 3.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD112020.04200—25:47
3J. KlingbergD000-400.02200—24:24
23E. LindellD000-230.19420—23:29
2J. OleksiakD000-220.02430—19:57
13M. JanmarkC011-110.094123318:25
16J. PavelskiC101040.6811127518:20
34D. GurianovR033030.263005018:11
12R. FaksaC000-210.132023517:29
24R. HintzC011010.072026716:06
10C. PerryR000020.40104—15:31
91T. SeguinC000-220.192004215:06
14J. BennL101-250.733006013:26
15B. ComeauL000-200.004112—13:16
5A. SekeraD000-100.00100—12:48
18J. DickinsonC000-210.1140010012:09
11A. CoglianoC000-100.09600010:01
47A. RadulovR000-340.39002—09:31
42T. FedunD000-130.04000—05:40
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Khudobin22202.9092.28+0.2840:57
30B. Bishop(L)19154.7891.51-2.4913:43

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).