Islanders at Capitals 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸4

Washington Capitals

FinalTV NBCSN, MSG+·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Washington Capitals 4-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Beauvillier's goal at 9:33 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.8 to 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 17, WSH 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 21 of 21 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 13 of 15 (.867). Three stars: 1. Anthony Beauvillier (2 G), 2. Semyon Varlamov (21 saves, 1.000), 3. Josh Bailey (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

★
A. Beauvillier2 G
★★
S. Varlamov21 saves, 1.000
★★★
J. Bailey1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	16	17	24	417
WSH	08	06	07	021

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

A. Beauvillier(5)PPG
B. Nelson (4), J. Bailey (7)
snapxG 0.20win prob +10 pts
1-0
10:19

2nd period

A. Beauvillier(6)
J. Bailey (8)
backhandxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
2-0
9:33

3rd period

N. Leddy(2)EN
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
3-0
17:47
J. Bailey(2)EN
Unassisted
wristxG 0.56
4-0
18:31

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

10:02Nic Dowd · Hookingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
10:59served by M. Barzal · Too many men on the ice2 min
14:12Lars Eller · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

17:02Richard Panik · High stickingdrawn by Ross Johnston2 min
17:19Anthony Beauvillier · Hookingdrawn by Carl Hagelin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier, 2nd 9:33 — NYI 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.8 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.8 xG · 25 att WSH

0 G · 1.8 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.82 G
All situations: 0 G1.8; 1.31 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.51 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 60 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

50%50%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 1.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

17
Shots on goal: 21; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 1/3
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 46
Hits: 34; 31
Blocked shots: 7; 13
Giveaways: 8; 8
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.00	6	4	0	—	22:59
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.05	1	5	0	—	22:26
2N. LeddyD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.52	0	2	0	—	20:42
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	6	0	—	19:25
25D. ToewsD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	17:41
13M. BarzalC	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	2	0	25	17:30
7J. EberleR	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	3	0	0	—	16:53
47L. KomarovR	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	4	3	0	—	16:10
12J. BaileyR	1	2	3	+3	1	0.56	0	0	0	—	16:04
29B. NelsonC	0	1	1	0	3	0.28	1	0	0	67	15:59
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	3	0	0	60	15:55
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.37	1	2	0	—	15:35
4A. GreeneD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	3	0	—	15:07
18A. BeauvillierR	2	0	2	+2	2	0.65	2	0	2	—	14:56
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	5	1	0	25	14:46
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	6	0	0	—	14:31
32R. JohnstonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	4	1	0	—	10:02
28M. Dal ColleL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	09:22

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40S. Varlamov(W)	21	21	0	1.000	1.78	+1.78	59:59

Series

NYI leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score