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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 3-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gabriel Landeskog's goal at 13:23 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.6 to 2.4; shots on goal were COL 31, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Pavel Francouz (30 saves, .938), 2. Juuse Saros (28 saves, .933), 3. Gabriel Landeskog (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    P. Francouz30 saves, .938
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros28 saves, .933
  3. ★★★
    COL
    G. Landeskog1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL08210113331
NSHNSH09013210232

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(18)
    E. Johnson (11), S. Girard (29)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +21 pts
    1-0
    13:23
  2. COL
    M. Kaut(2)
    T. Jost (13), C. Makar (35)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    2-0
    15:38

3rd period

  1. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(15)
    R. Ellis (28), R. Josi (44)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +10 pts
    2-1
    14:40
  2. COL
    E. Johnson(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.46win prob +5 pts
    3-1
    19:03
  3. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(13)
    R. Ellis (29), R. Josi (45)
    backhandxG 0.07
    3-2
    19:58

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:36NSHRyan Ellis · Hookingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min
  • 9:19COLValeri Nichushkin · Interferencedrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min

2nd

  • 2:50NSHMatt Duchene · Holdingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 19:46COLErik Johnson · Holdingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

3rd

  • 2:17COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 5:21NSHDante Fabbro · High stickingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 16:46NSHColin Blackwell · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Pavel Francouz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog, 2nd 13:23 — COL 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.33F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.27K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.20V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.17M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.17M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.13M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.12V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.11F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.11V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.11M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.08C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.08V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.07N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.06M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.05R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03K. Turris · Missed · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.03R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01J. Tinordi · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 3.6 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
2.42 G
All situations
2 G3.6
1.02 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
1.00 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL24%76%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 3.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
32
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
10
Hits
10
9
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
9
10
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011030.34000—24:28
92G. LandeskogL101050.300025822:44
27R. GravesD000010.03140—22:04
37J. CompherL000020.200004721:31
29N. MacKinnonC000+150.380005021:18
17T. JostC011040.251002018:54
6E. JohnsonD112+130.51302—17:30
49S. GirardD011+110.05000—17:22
28I. ColeD000000.00030—16:44
13V. NichushkinR000+210.05002—16:37
16N. ZadorovD000010.01200—14:48
83M. NietoL000-100.00000—14:31
72J. DonskoiR000+100.00100—14:03
90V. NamestnikovC000010.01100013:11
41P. BellemareL000010.0102010013:02
61M. KautR101030.17000—09:07
44M. BarberioD000000.00000—08:22
25L. O'ConnorR000000.11100—07:44
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(W)32302.9383.63+1.6360:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).