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Senators at Predators
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Nashville Predators
▸3
FinalTV FS-TN, TSN5·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2. The Senators scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Ellis's goal at 5:17 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 37% to 53%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.8, NSH 2.9; shots on goal were OTT 35, NSH 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.5 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Ellis (1 G, 1 A), 2. Juuse Saros (33 saves, .943), 3. Viktor Arvidsson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros33 saves, .943
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT2170909235
NSHNSH1921707333

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(6)
    S. Sabourin (4), R. Hainsey (11)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:16
  2. NSH
    C. Blackwell(3)
    M. Ekholm (25), R. Johansen (22)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:36
  3. OTT
    F. Chlapik(3)
    R. Balcers (2), J. Hawryluk (4)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    18:34

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(7)PPG
    M. Granlund (12)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    5:17
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(14)PPG
    C. Jarnkrok (18), R. Ellis (24)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    9:43

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:51OTTThomas Chabot · High stickingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min

2nd

  • 3:21OTTChris Tierney · Slashingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 8:19OTTChristian Jaros · High stickingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 10:43NSHJarred Tinordi · Interferencedrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 3:22NSHRoman Josi · Boardingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalOTT goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Ellis, 2nd 5:17 — NSH 37% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.47V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.33M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.18J. Tinordi · On goal · xG 0.17C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.11M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.11R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.08R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.08K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.08N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.08R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.07M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06C. Blackwell · Goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tinordi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.00C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.9 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNSH
2.82 G
All situations
3 G2.9
2.12 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.50 G
Power play
2 G1.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT57%43%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.78 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNSH
35
Shots on goal
33
29%
Faceoffs
71%
0/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
6
19
Blocked shots
13
12
Giveaways
17
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD101+240.17122—32:36
81R. HainseyD011+100.01030—26:12
28C. BrownR000030.42010—22:43
22N. ZaitsevD000-100.03010—22:19
7B. TkachukL000040.485101421:42
5M. ReillyD000050.11240—20:09
71C. TierneyC000020.270022519:32
51A. AnisimovC000-130.370005018:12
13N. PaulL000-110.132003316:10
9B. RyanR000-140.34220—15:38
78F. ChlapikC101+120.08100013:18
38R. BalcersL011+220.03100—12:32
79J. HawrylukR011+100.00310—11:47
53M. PecaC000+100.020104310:53
89M. BoedkerL000040.11010—09:43
49S. SabourinR011+110.27000—08:55
39A. EnglundD000000.00000—07:45
83C. JarosD000000.00022—07:08
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)33303.9092.47-0.5357:26

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).