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Coyotes at Senators
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
2
Ottawa Senators
▸3
FinalTV FS-A, FS-A PLUS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Utah Mammoth 3-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 6:50 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 80% to 95%. Expected goals were close — ARI 2.6, OTT 2.4; shots on goal were ARI 34, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Antti Raanta stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected; Marcus Hogberg stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Marcus Hogberg (32 saves, .941), 2. Brady Tkachuk (1 G), 3. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    M. Hogberg32 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    O. Ekman-Larsson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI09113112234
OTTOTT21008113331

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    V. Namestnikov(12)
    D. Batherson (6), C. Tierney (19)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:50
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(17)
    T. Chabot (26), C. Brown (25)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    6:41

2nd period

  1. ARI
    O. Ekman-Larsson(7)PPG
    T. Hall (32), N. Schmaltz (32)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    16:40

3rd period

  1. OTT
    N. Paul(7)
    A. Anisimov (4)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:50
  2. ARI
    J. Oesterle(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    9:01

Penalties

ARI 6 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

2nd

  • 0:51ARITaylor Hall · Trippingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
  • 8:44OTTBrady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Oesterle2 min
  • 12:55ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson · High stickingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 16:31OTTNikita Zaitsev · Hookingdrawn by Phil Kessel2 min

3rd

  • 18:07ARIserved by N. Schmaltz · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalARI goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 3rd 6:50 — OTT 80% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.18T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.17N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.15V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.14B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.11N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.11T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.11C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.08D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.08T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.08T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.07C. White · Missed · xG 0.07D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.06C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.06T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.02F. Chlapik · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.01A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.00D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.4 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsOTT
2.62 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.41 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI52%48%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsOTT
34
Shots on goal
31
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
34
12
Blocked shots
32
12
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6J. ChychrunD000-240.08320—25:39
33A. GoligoskiD000-200.03230—24:34
23O. Ekman-LarssonD101-140.13112—20:37
91T. HallL011020.2310210019:05
18C. DvorakC000040.290004317:55
4N. HjalmarssonD000020.04110—17:41
9C. KellerR000-210.04000—17:40
81P. KesselR000010.31000—17:20
8N. SchmaltzC011-140.430005716:54
13V. HinostrozaC000020.2401010016:46
82J. OesterleD101030.08100—15:56
83C. GarlandR000-110.00000—14:43
46I. LyubushkinD000+100.00310—14:37
21D. StepanC000010.011205014:31
67L. CrouseL000030.56210—14:23
15B. RichardsonR000-100.012005011:00
34C. SoderbergC000020.01200008:28
36C. FischerR000-100.08100—07:49
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Raanta(L)31283.9032.41-0.5958:33

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).